NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Bucky Irving RB

TB vs ATL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

15.5 Rec Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · Last 10 10%1/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 11.1
Graph avg: 10.5
Graph median: 7.00–48
Over the close: 20%2/10

2026 per game

Carries17.1▼-0.2

Rush Yds79.7▲+20.9

Rush TD0.6▲+0.5

Targets3.3▼-0.2

Rec2.6▼-0.4

Rec Yds11.1▼-16.6

Snaps42.6▲+0.5

Snap %64.0%▲+2.4

15.5

2025

0

Dec 21
14

Dec 28
13

Jan 03
2026

48

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
12

Sep 27
0

Oct 04
10

Oct 08
3

Oct 18
4

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 15.5

Home 35% 7/20 · avg 22.8
Away 40% 6/15 · avg 19.8
vs ATL 25% 1/4 · avg 17.8

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 5.5 50% 5/10
O 10.5 40% 4/10
O 15.5 Today 10% 1/10
O 20.5 10% 1/10
O 25.5 10% 1/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds88.8#20
Yds/Carry4.4#13
Rush TD0.7#13
Targets7.1#3
Rec Yds35.3#8

RBs vs ATL · 2026

Each main RB who faced ATL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+1.6

Avg diff %+2%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Christian McCaffrey	61	31.7	+93%
Oct 18	D'Andre Swift	26	21.0	+24%
Oct 11	Justice Hill	5	13.2	-62%
Oct 05	Alvin Kamara	35	19.6	+79%
Sep 24	MarShawn Lloyd	7	10.5	-33%
Sep 20	Chuba Hubbard	11	20.2	-46%
Sep 13	Jaylen Warren	27	44.5	-39%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.9 yds	4%13.4 yds	6%8.5 yds
Short	34%5.1 yds	14%7.2 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	3%19.0 yds#4	8%9.4 yds#22
Short	32%6.4 yds#8	14%6.6 yds#22	33%5.3 yds#19

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	49%4.8 yds	8%4.3 yds	43%2.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	6	8.2	49	25.6%
2	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	7	4.9	34	19.9%
3	Cade Otton TE	7	4.3	30	15.3%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	6	3.8	23	12.7%
5	Bucky Irving RB	7	3.3	23	12.4%
6	Tez Johnson WR	7	2.1	15	8.4%
7	Kenny Gainwell RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	7	0.3	2	1.1%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 15.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ CAR	4	Under	16.5	37 (59%)
2026-10-18	6	vs PIT	3	Under	10.5	63 (85%)
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	10	Under	13.5	39 (54%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	0	Under	12.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	12	Under	15.5	36 (52%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	1	Under	17.5	51 (78%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	48	Over	13.5	35 (61%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	13	Under	21.5	42 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	14	Under	12.5	36 (54%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	0	Under	0.5	40 (62%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 14.5PrizePicks 15.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.