NFL Prop Research

AJB

A.J. Brown WR

NE vs MIA · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

50.5 Rec Yds O -112U -112

BookCaesars · 50.5Fanatics · 50.5DraftKings · 50.5FanDuel · 50.5ESPN BET · 49.5Bally Bet · 48.5

Hit rate · Last 10 50%5/10 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg

33.7

Graph avg

67.2

Graph median

58.025–132

Over the close

30%3/10

2026 per game

Targets6.7▼-1.3

Rec3.0▼-2.1

Rec Yds33.7▼-30.6

Rec TD0.0▼-0.4

Snaps44.0▼-13.2

Snap %70.3%▼-20.9

Splits all logged games · over 50.5

• Home 37% 7/19 · avg 59.1
• Away 71% 12/17 · avg 73.5
• vs MIA No games

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

• O 40.5 70% 7/10
• O 45.5 60% 6/10
• O 50.5 Today 50% 5/10
• O 55.5 50% 5/10
• O 60.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs MIA

What MIA allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds138.0#19
• Receptions10.4#24
• Targets14.2#32
• Yds/Target9.7#1
• Rec TD0.8#20

WRs vs MIA · 2026

Each main WR who faced MIA this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-11.8

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average42% (5/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	NYJ Garrett Wilson	26	69.7	-63%
Oct 25	NYJ Omar Cooper Jr.	115	66.5	+73%
Oct 11	CIN Tee Higgins	22	109.8	-80%
Oct 11	CIN Ja'Marr Chase	77	54.8	+41%
Oct 04	MIN Jordan Addison	52	32.8	+59%
Oct 04	MIN Tai Felton	14	9.0	+56%
Sep 27	KC Tyquan Thornton	22	65.7	-66%
Sep 27	KC Rashee Rice	88	51.0	+73%
Sep 20	SF Mike Evans	54	73.2	-26%
Sep 20	SF Deebo Samuel Sr.	31	43.8	-29%
Sep 13	LV Tre Tucker	27	74.5	-64%
Sep 13	LV Cody White	0	18.7	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%8.7 yds	3%13.7 yds	10%15.4 yds
Short	31%5.7 yds	16%6.6 yds	29%6.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

MIA defense

MIA defense: Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%15.7 yds#3	5%18.6 yds#6	8%13.0 yds#10
Short	30%6.8 yds#4	16%7.8 yds#12	36%6.2 yds#7

Throws MIA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%8.5 yds	10%12.0 yds	10%8.4 yds
Short	29%7.3 yds	11%9.2 yds	28%6.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · NE 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	3	6.7	20	22.1%
2	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
3	DeMario Douglas WR	7	4.9	34	16.2%
4	Hunter Henry TE	7	4.4	31	15.3%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	7	3.4	24	11.3%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Eli Raridon TE	6	2.7	16	8.8%
9	Efton Chism III WR	6	2.5	15	8.1%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 50.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-22	7	@ CHI	48	Under	69.5	49 (91%)
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	27	Under	52.5	52 (76%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	26	Under	64.5	31 (44%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	25	Under	32.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	68	Over	68.5	48 (89%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	95	Over	95.5	61 (87%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LV	41	Under	14.5	50 (72%)
2025-12-08	14	@ LAC	100	Over	70.5	69 (97%)
2025-11-28	13	vs CHI	132	Over	60.5	52 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	@ DAL	110	Over	110.5	59 (94%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 49.5PrizePicks 50.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 17m ago.