NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Ted Hurst III WR

TB vs ATL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

22.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 5 80%4/5 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 28.0
Graph avg: 26.4
Graph median: 27.00–40
Over the close: 60%3/5

2026 per game

Targets3.8

Rec1.8

Rec Yds28.0

Rec TD0.2

Snaps40.0

Snap %61.7%

22.5

2026

27

Sep 20
40

Sep 27
25

Oct 04
40

Oct 18
0

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 22.5

Home 100% 4/4 · avg 33.0
Away 50% 1/2 · avg 18.0
vs ATL No games

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 12.5 80% 4/5
O 17.5 80% 4/5
O 22.5 Today 80% 4/5
O 27.5 40% 2/5
O 32.5 40% 2/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds152.1#12
Receptions12.4#8
Targets20.1#6
Yds/Target7.6#21
Rec TD0.7#22

WRs vs ATL · 2026

Each main WR who faced ATL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+4.7

Avg diff %+16%

Beat their average71% (10/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jordan Watkins	56	41.0	+37%
Oct 25	Brandin Cooks	13	6.7	+95%
Oct 18	Luther Burden III	95	66.0	+44%
Oct 18	Rome Odunze	39	57.0	-32%
Oct 11	Zay Flowers	53	111.0	-52%
Oct 11	Rashod Bateman	62	34.0	+82%
Oct 05	Chris Olave	116	86.7	+34%
Oct 05	Devaughn Vele	54	49.0	+10%
Sep 24	Christian Watson	96	83.2	+15%
Sep 24	Matthew Golden	100	73.3	+36%
Sep 20	Tetairoa McMillan	101	82.0	+23%
Sep 20	Jalen Coker	66	65.5	+1%
Sep 13	DK Metcalf	40	55.7	-28%
Sep 13	Roman Wilson	26	40.5	-36%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.9 yds	4%13.4 yds	6%8.5 yds
Short	34%5.1 yds	14%7.2 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	3%19.0 yds#4	8%9.4 yds#22
Short	32%6.4 yds#8	14%6.6 yds#22	33%5.3 yds#19

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 6 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	22%11.8 yds	13%13.3 yds	13%7.0 yds
Short	26%5.8 yds	9%0.0 yds	17%3.2 yds

Last 6 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	6	8.2	49	25.6%
2	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	7	4.9	34	19.9%
3	Cade Otton TE	7	4.3	30	15.3%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	6	3.8	23	12.7%
5	Bucky Irving RB	7	3.3	23	12.4%
6	Tez Johnson WR	7	2.1	15	8.4%
7	Kenny Gainwell RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	7	0.3	2	1.1%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 22.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ CAR	0	Under	37.5	35 (56%)
2026-10-18	6	vs PIT	40	Over	11.5	37 (50%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	25	Over	21.5	25 (40%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	40	Over	24.5	52 (75%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	27	Over	29.5	48 (74%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 22.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 11m ago.