NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Luther Burden III WR

CHI vs SEA · Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET

51.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 5 80%4/5 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 70.1
Graph avg: 79.2
Graph median: 63.047–130
Over the close: 100%5/5

2026 per game

Targets6.7▲+2.4

Rec5.0▲+1.9

Rec Yds70.1▲+27.9

Rec TD0.3▲+0.2

Snaps45.4▲+16.4

Snap %60.6%▲+18.7

51.5

2026

61

Sep 28
63

Oct 04
47

Oct 11
95

Oct 18
130

Oct 22
?

Nov 03

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 51.5

Home 38% 5/13 · avg 52.9
Away 36% 4/11 · avg 47.4
vs SEA No games

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 41.5 100% 5/5
O 46.5 100% 5/5
O 51.5 Today 80% 4/5
O 56.5 80% 4/5
O 61.5 60% 3/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds110.8#32
Receptions9.2#31
Targets16.7#26
Yds/Target6.6#30
Rec TD0.7#26

WRs vs SEA · 2026

Each main WR who faced SEA this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-10.9

Avg diff %-17%

Beat their average29% (4/14)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Xavier Worthy	11	41.2	-73%
Oct 25	Cyrus Allen	18	9.0	+100%
Oct 15	Jaylen Waddle	24	42.0	-43%
Oct 15	Courtland Sutton	19	24.8	-23%
Oct 11	Mike Evans	113	61.4	+84%
Oct 11	Deebo Samuel Sr.	21	46.2	-55%
Oct 04	Ladd McConkey	0	50.0	-100%
Oct 04	Tre Harris	60	41.2	+45%
Sep 27	Stefon Diggs	33	45.2	-27%
Sep 27	Terry McLaurin	77	38.2	+101%
Sep 20	Michael Wilson	18	59.5	-70%
Sep 20	Kendrick Bourne	11	44.6	-75%
Sep 09	Mack Hollins	51	52.7	-3%
Sep 09	Romeo Doubs	0	52.2	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.0 yds	5%12.5 yds	9%6.8 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	22%7.4 yds	36%6.1 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	2%16.8 yds#10	10%9.2 yds#23
Short	30%5.5 yds#19	17%5.2 yds#31	32%4.6 yds#32

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%20.5 yds	9%14.2 yds	9%7.3 yds
Short	25%6.0 yds	23%7.3 yds	28%9.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	7	6.7	47	21.0%
2	Colston Loveland TE	7	6.0	42	18.9%
3	Rome Odunze WR	7	5.4	38	16.6%
4	Kalif Raymond WR	7	4.4	31	14.4%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	7	3.6	25	11.0%
6	Cole Kmet TE	7	2.0	14	6.5%
7	Roschon Johnson RB	5	2.0	10	5.4%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	5	1.0	5	3.2%
10	Zavion Thomas WR	6	0.8	5	2.4%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 51.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-22	7	vs NE	130	Over	56.5	42 (61%)
2026-10-18	6	@ ATL	95	Over	53.5	30 (39%)
2026-10-11	5	@ GB	47	Under	46.5	53 (77%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NYJ	63	Over	46.5	52 (56%)
2026-09-28	3	vs PHI	61	Over	33.5	44 (61%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 49.5PrizePicks 52.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.