NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jake Ferguson TE

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

14.5 Rec Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · Last 20 65%13/20 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 16.4
Graph avg: 24.6
Graph median: 19.00–60
Over the close: 32%6/19

2026 per game

Targets3.6▼-2.4

Rec2.4▼-2.4

Rec Yds16.4▼-18.9

Rec TD0.4-0.0

Snaps44.7▼-1.5

Snap %67.0%▲+0.3

14.5

2025

49

Oct 05
33

Oct 12
29

Oct 19
0

Oct 26
50

Nov 03
16

Nov 17
60

Nov 23
36

Nov 27
58

Dec 04
16

Dec 14
19

Dec 21
6

Dec 25
5

Jan 04
2026

6

Sep 13
43

Sep 20
23

Sep 27
11

Oct 04
19

Oct 08
13

Oct 18
0

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 83% 15/18 · avg 35.4
Away 65% 13/20 · avg 28.6
vs ARI 100% 1/1 · avg 50.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 90% 18/20
O 9.5 75% 15/20
O 14.5 Today 65% 13/20
O 19.5 45% 9/20
O 24.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds69.1#5
Receptions6.2#7
Targets8.1#9
Yds/Target8.5#4
Rec TD0.9#3

TEs vs ARI · 2026

Each main TE who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.5

Avg diff %-25%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Evan Engram	2	22.3	-91%
Oct 18	Tyler Higbee	22	47.6	-54%
Oct 11	Sam LaPorta	88	49.2	+79%
Oct 04	Isaiah Likely	66	54.8	+20%
Sep 27	George Kittle	82	57.2	+43%
Sep 20	AJ Barner	8	28.7	-72%
Sep 13	Charlie Kolar	0	26.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	3%19.0 yds
Short	21%3.6 yds	24%4.2 yds	52%3.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 14.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	0	Under	18.5	38 (56%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	13	Under	24.5	42 (54%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	19	Over	26.5	50 (83%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	11	Under	24.5	55 (71%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	23	Over	28.5	51 (69%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	43	Over	27.5	33 (60%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	6	Under	30.5	44 (76%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	5	Under	14.5	33 (60%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	6	Under	36.5	27 (29%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	19	Over	19.5	40 (69%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	16	Over	21.5	50 (71%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	58	Over	50.5	66 (80%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	36	Over	30.5	51 (71%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	60	Over	40.5	51 (69%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	16	Over	10.5	42 (63%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	50	Over	—	60 (90%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	0	Under	10.5	44 (59%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	29	Over	30.5	44 (66%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	33	Over	37.5	37 (67%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	49	Over	48.5	33 (55%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 14.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.