NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Jake Ferguson TE

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

14.5 Rec Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · All 74%28/38 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 16.4
Graph avg: 31.8
Graph median: 23.00–95
Over the close: 36%8/22

2026 per game

Targets3.6▼-2.4

Rec2.4▼-2.4

Rec Yds16.4▼-18.9

Rec TD0.4-0.0

Snaps44.7▼-1.5

Snap %67.0%▲+0.3

14.5

2024

15

Sep 08
95

Sep 22
49

Sep 26
70

Oct 06
11

Oct 13
23

Oct 27
71

Nov 03
24

Nov 10
11

Nov 18
32

Dec 09
23

Dec 15
40

Dec 22
18

Dec 29
12

Jan 05
2025

23

Sep 04
78

Sep 14
82

Sep 21
40

Sep 28
49

Oct 05
33

Oct 12
29

Oct 19
0

Oct 26
50

Nov 03
16

Nov 17
60

Nov 23
36

Nov 27
58

Dec 04
16

Dec 14
19

Dec 21
6

Dec 25
5

Jan 04
2026

6

Sep 13
43

Sep 20
23

Sep 27
11

Oct 04
19

Oct 08
13

Oct 18
0

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 14.5

Home 83% 15/18 · avg 35.4
Away 65% 13/20 · avg 28.6
vs ARI 100% 1/1 · avg 50.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 4.5 95% 36/38
O 9.5 87% 33/38
O 14.5 Today 74% 28/38
O 19.5 58% 22/38
O 24.5 45% 17/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds69.1#5
Receptions6.2#7
Targets8.1#9
Yds/Target8.5#4
Rec TD0.9#3

TEs vs ARI · 2026

Each main TE who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.5

Avg diff %-25%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Evan Engram	2	22.3	-91%
Oct 18	Tyler Higbee	22	47.6	-54%
Oct 11	Sam LaPorta	88	49.2	+79%
Oct 04	Isaiah Likely	66	54.8	+20%
Sep 27	George Kittle	82	57.2	+43%
Sep 20	AJ Barner	8	28.7	-72%
Sep 13	Charlie Kolar	0	26.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	3%19.0 yds
Short	21%3.6 yds	24%4.2 yds	52%3.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 14.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	0	Under	18.5	38 (56%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	13	Under	24.5	42 (54%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	19	Over	26.5	50 (83%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	11	Under	24.5	55 (71%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	23	Over	28.5	51 (69%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	43	Over	27.5	33 (60%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	6	Under	30.5	44 (76%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	5	Under	14.5	33 (60%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	6	Under	36.5	27 (29%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	19	Over	19.5	40 (69%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	16	Over	21.5	50 (71%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	58	Over	50.5	66 (80%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	36	Over	30.5	51 (71%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	60	Over	40.5	51 (69%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	16	Over	10.5	42 (63%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	50	Over	—	60 (90%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	0	Under	10.5	44 (59%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	29	Over	30.5	44 (66%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	33	Over	37.5	37 (67%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	49	Over	48.5	33 (55%)
2025-09-28	4	vs GB	40	Over	—	54 (78%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CHI	82	Over	70.5	42 (57%)
2025-09-14	2	vs NYG	78	Over	36.5	65 (73%)
2025-09-04	1	@ PHI	23	Over	38.5	47 (77%)
2025-01-05	18	vs WAS	12	Under	—	46 (59%)
2024-12-29	17	@ PHI	18	Over	—	42 (68%)
2024-12-22	16	vs TB	40	Over	—	35 (58%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CAR	23	Over	—	44 (60%)
2024-12-09	14	vs CIN	32	Over	—	46 (77%)
2024-11-18	11	vs HOU	11	Under	—	7 (8%)
2024-11-10	10	vs PHI	24	Over	—	45 (75%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ATL	71	Over	—	63 (82%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SF	23	Over	—	52 (84%)
2024-10-13	6	vs DET	11	Under	—	46 (67%)
2024-10-06	5	@ PIT	70	Over	—	57 (75%)
2024-09-26	4	@ NYG	49	Over	—	41 (73%)
2024-09-22	3	vs BAL	95	Over	—	53 (66%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CLE	15	Over	—	39 (62%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 14.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.