NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Javonte Williams RB

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

11.5 Rec Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 46%19/41 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 14.7
Graph avg: 14.6
Graph median: 9.00–50
Over the close: 31%5/16

2026 per game

Carries15.7-0.0

Rush Yds67.4▼-7.6

Rush TD1.1▲+0.5

Targets3.1-0.0

Rec2.7▲+0.5

Rec Yds14.7▲+6.2

Snaps50.1▲+2.1

Snap %74.9%▲+5.9

11.5

2024

48

Sep 15
29

Sep 22
3

Sep 29
50

Oct 06
13

Oct 13
23

Oct 17
8

Oct 27
42

Nov 03
6

Nov 10
28

Nov 17
6

Nov 24
3

Dec 02
8

Dec 15
29

Dec 19
0

Dec 28
50

Jan 05
14

Jan 12
2025

10

Sep 04
33

Sep 14
16

Sep 21
15

Sep 28
4

Oct 05
5

Oct 12
2

Oct 19
8

Oct 26
0

Nov 03
0

Nov 17
14

Nov 23
21

Nov 27
0

Dec 04
0

Dec 14
9

Dec 21
0

Dec 25
2026

31

Sep 13
20

Sep 20
5

Sep 27
21

Oct 04
17

Oct 08
9

Oct 18
0

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Showing the latest 40 of 41 games.

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 11.5

Home 58% 11/19 · avg 18.1
Away 36% 8/22 · avg 11.6
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 0.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 80% 33/41
O 6.5 61% 25/41
O 11.5 Today 46% 19/41
O 16.5 34% 14/41
O 21.5 24% 10/41

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds111.5#4
Yds/Carry4.4#10
Rush TD0.8#9
Targets5.6#14
Rec Yds39.4#6

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.1

Avg diff %-24%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	RJ Harvey	54	32.6	+66%
Oct 18	Kyren Williams	17	37.0	-54%
Oct 11	Jahmyr Gibbs	56	42.8	+31%
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	8	13.6	-41%
Sep 27	Christian McCaffrey	41	35.0	+17%
Sep 20	George Holani	2	14.3	-86%
Sep 13	Alec Ingold	0	17.5	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	35%4.9 yds	18%3.0 yds	47%3.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 41 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 11.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	0	Under	12.5	44 (65%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	9	Under	14.5	57 (73%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	17	Over	14.5	51 (85%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	21	Over	13.5	58 (74%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	5	Under	14.5	56 (76%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	20	Over	13.5	44 (80%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	31	Over	10.5	41 (71%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	0	Under	8.5	25 (27%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	9	Under	9.5	33 (57%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	0	Under	10.5	20 (29%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	0	Under	10.5	65 (79%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	21	Over	20.5	56 (78%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	14	Over	14.5	58 (78%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	0	Under	10.5	52 (78%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	0	Under	—	58 (87%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	8	Under	10.5	53 (72%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	2	Under	10.5	46 (69%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	5	Under	—	47 (85%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	4	Under	—	46 (77%)
2025-09-28	4	vs GB	15	Over	—	55 (80%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CHI	16	Over	—	44 (59%)
2025-09-14	2	vs NYG	33	Over	—	64 (72%)
2025-09-04	1	@ PHI	10	Under	—	47 (77%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	@ BUF	14	Over	—	31 (74%)
2025-01-05	18	vs KC	50	Over	—	23 (31%)
2024-12-28	17	@ CIN	0	Under	—	22 (37%)
2024-12-19	16	@ LAC	29	Over	—	33 (52%)
2024-12-15	15	vs IND	8	Under	—	34 (54%)
2024-12-02	13	vs CLE	3	Under	—	30 (45%)
2024-11-24	12	@ LV	6	Under	—	38 (56%)
2024-11-17	11	vs ATL	28	Over	—	32 (52%)
2024-11-10	10	@ KC	6	Under	—	17 (29%)
2024-11-03	9	@ BAL	42	Over	—	39 (54%)
2024-10-27	8	vs CAR	8	Under	—	42 (58%)
2024-10-17	7	@ NO	23	Over	—	41 (63%)
2024-10-13	6	vs LAC	13	Over	—	37 (67%)
2024-10-06	5	vs LV	50	Over	—	40 (63%)
2024-09-29	4	@ NYJ	3	Under	—	35 (57%)
2024-09-22	3	@ TB	29	Over	—	35 (51%)
2024-09-15	2	vs PIT	48	Over	—	40 (66%)
2024-09-08	1	@ SEA	0	Under	—	36 (52%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 9.5PrizePicks 11.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 8m ago.