NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Kenneth Walker III RB

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

18.5 Rec Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 19.3
Graph avg: 22.1
Graph median: 18.5-1–64
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Carries20.0▲+5.7

Rush Yds116.8▲+49.8

Rush TD1.0▲+0.6

Targets4.5▲+2.1

Rec3.0▲+1.0

Rec Yds19.3+0.0

Snaps46.7▲+15.7

Snap %74.3%▲+25.0

18.5

2025

0

Oct 20
19

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
44

Nov 16
30

Nov 23
18

Nov 30
-1

Dec 07
2

Dec 14
64

Dec 18
6

Dec 28
36

Jan 03
29

Jan 17
49

Jan 25
26

Feb 08
2026

18

Sep 14
61

Sep 20
3

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
11

Oct 18
21

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 18.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 25.4
Away 53% 9/17 · avg 17.2
vs DEN 0% 0/2 · avg 12.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 8.5 65% 13/20
O 13.5 60% 12/20
O 18.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 23.5 40% 8/20
O 28.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds95.1#16
Yds/Carry4.2#16
Rush TD0.5#27
Targets5.9#11
Rec Yds30.7#20

RBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main RB who faced DEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.2

Avg diff %+0%

Beat their average29% (2/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Tyler Allgeier	30	9.0	+233%
Oct 15	George Holani	0	14.7	-100%
Oct 11	Kimani Vidal	-1	11.0	-109%
Oct 04	Christian McCaffrey	18	38.8	-54%
Sep 27	Kyren Williams	70	28.2	+149%
Sep 20	Bhayshul Tuten	-3	25.8	-112%
Sep 14	Kenneth Walker III	18	19.6	-8%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	45%7.7 yds	14%3.0 yds	40%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 18.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	21	Over	21.5	39 (74%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	11	Under	21.5	45 (74%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	2	Under	22.5	45 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	3	Under	22.5	38 (73%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	61	Over	20.5	66 (82%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	18	Under	21.5	47 (68%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	26	Over	22.5	47 (65%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs LA	49	Over	22.5	42 (63%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	29	Over	13.5	33 (62%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	36	Over	12.5	29 (42%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	6	Under	6.5	31 (47%)
2025-12-18	16	vs LA	64	Over	11.5	30 (44%)
2025-12-14	15	vs IND	2	Under	12.5	25 (42%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	-1	Under	13.5	32 (52%)
2025-11-30	13	vs MIN	18	Under	20.5	37 (55%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	30	Over	7.5	30 (62%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	44	Over	10.5	43 (51%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ARI	3	Under	10.5	27 (44%)
2025-11-02	9	@ WAS	19	Over	—	29 (57%)
2025-10-20	7	vs HOU	0	Under	—	32 (44%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 14.5PrizePicks 19.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.