NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Lamar Jackson QB

BAL vs BUF · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

30.5 Pass Att O -114U -112

Hit rate · This season 25%1/4 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 24.0
Graph avg: 24.0
Graph median: 22.520–31
Over the close: 25%1/4

2026 per game

Pass Yds241.8▲+45.7

Att24.0▲+0.8

Cmp%70.8%▲+7.3

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.2▼-0.3

Rush Yds36.0▲+9.2

Snaps55.8▲+1.8

Snap %88.0%▼-4.2

30.5

2026

25

Sep 13
31

Sep 20
20

Sep 27
20

Oct 04
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 41% 7/17 · avg 26.4
Away 21% 4/19 · avg 24.7
vs BUF 0% 0/3 · avg 20.7

Alt lines this season · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 25% 1/4
O 29.5 25% 1/4
O 30.5 Today 25% 1/4
O 31.5 0% 0/4
O 32.5 0% 0/4

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds244.8#10
Yds/Att6.7#21
Cmp%61.3%#26
Pass TD2.3#2
Pass Att36.7#4

QBs vs BUF · 2026

Each main QB who faced BUF this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+6.4

Avg diff %+19%

Beat their average100% (6/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Kirk Cousins	41	36.0	+14%
Oct 12	Matthew Stafford	54	37.3	+45%
Oct 04	Drake Maye	37	29.5	+25%
Sep 27	Justin Herbert	34	29.2	+16%
Sep 17	Jared Goff	38	37.0	+3%
Sep 13	C.J. Stroud	38	34.8	+9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BAL offense

BAL offense: Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%18.2 yds	5%8.2 yds	5%11.9 yds
Short	25%7.7 yds	23%8.9 yds	34%6.2 yds

Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.3 yds#12	5%12.4 yds#24	9%9.2 yds#24
Short	31%5.4 yds#24	17%6.4 yds#28	32%5.5 yds#15

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%19.1 yds	4%11.0 yds	9%11.5 yds
Short	24%7.2 yds	27%10.4 yds	26%5.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of BAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Zay Flowers WR	6	8.8	53	31.1%
2	Mark Andrews TE	7	5.3	37	19.4%
3	Ja'Kobi Lane WR	3	4.3	13	14.4%
4	Rashod Bateman WR	7	3.7	26	13.1%
5	Justice Hill RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
6	Chris Moore WR	3	2.0	6	7.9%
7	Josh Cuevas TE	5	2.2	11	7.3%
8	Elijah Sarratt WR	1	2.0	2	6.9%
9	Devontez Walker WR	5	1.8	9	6.3%
10	Derrick Henry RB	7	1.7	12	6.0%

Game log · 4 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs TEN	20	Under	26.5	33 (52%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DAL	20	Under	28.5	64 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs NO	31	Over	27.5	58 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ IND	25	Under	27.5	68 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 30.5Underdog 30.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.