NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Caleb Williams QB

CHI vs SEA · Mon Nov 2 · 8:15 PM ET

31.5 Pass Att O -130U -102

Hit rate · All 55%22/40 Odds imply 52.8% Over

Season avg: 31.0
Graph avg: 33.6
Graph median: 33.023–52
Over the close: 50%11/22

2026 per game

Pass Yds255.0▲+15.0

Att31.0▼-3.6

Cmp%71.0%▲+13.7

Pass TD1.2▼-0.4

INT0.2▼-0.4

Rush Yds32.0▲+8.4

Snaps71.2▲+2.7

Snap %96.5%▼-2.7

31.5

2024

29

Sep 08
37

Sep 15
52

Sep 22
23

Sep 29
29

Oct 06
29

Oct 13
24

Oct 27
41

Nov 03
30

Nov 10
31

Nov 17
47

Nov 24
39

Nov 28
23

Dec 08
31

Dec 16
40

Dec 22
28

Dec 26
29

Jan 05
2025

35

Sep 08
30

Sep 14
28

Sep 21
37

Sep 28
29

Oct 13
26

Oct 19
38

Oct 26
34

Nov 02
36

Nov 09
32

Nov 16
35

Nov 23
36

Nov 28
35

Dec 07
28

Dec 14
34

Dec 20
42

Dec 28
33

Jan 04
48

Jan 10
42

Jan 18
2026

29

Sep 13
26

Sep 20
36

Oct 18
33

Oct 22
?

Nov 03

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 31.5

Home 48% 10/21 · avg 32.9
Away 63% 12/19 · avg 34.4
vs SEA 0% 0/1 · avg 28.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 29.5 65% 26/40
O 30.5 60% 24/40
O 31.5 Today 55% 22/40
O 32.5 52% 21/40
O 33.5 48% 19/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs SEA

What SEA allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds191.9#30
Yds/Att6.0#31
Cmp%62.0%#23
Pass TD1.3#19
Pass Att32.1#19

QBs vs SEA · 2026

Each main QB who faced SEA this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+0.8

Avg diff %+25%

Beat their average57% (4/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Patrick Mahomes	33	31.6	+4%
Oct 15	Bo Nix	27	31.8	-15%
Oct 11	Brock Purdy	29	30.3	-4%
Oct 04	Justin Herbert	31	29.8	+4%
Sep 27	Marcus Mariota	31	10.0	+210%
Sep 20	Jacoby Brissett	28	42.3	-34%
Sep 09	Drake Maye	33	30.2	+9%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CHI offense

CHI offense: Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.0 yds	5%12.5 yds	9%6.8 yds
Short	22%5.8 yds	22%7.4 yds	36%6.1 yds

Share of CHI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

SEA defense

SEA defense: Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	2%16.8 yds#10	10%9.2 yds#23
Short	30%5.5 yds#19	17%5.2 yds#31	32%4.6 yds#32

Throws SEA faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.4 yds	6%15.2 yds	9%7.1 yds
Short	22%6.3 yds	18%5.9 yds	37%6.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of CHI targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Luther Burden III WR	7	6.7	47	21.0%
2	Colston Loveland TE	7	6.0	42	18.9%
3	Rome Odunze WR	7	5.4	38	16.6%
4	Kalif Raymond WR	7	4.4	31	14.4%
5	D'Andre Swift RB	7	3.6	25	11.0%
6	Cole Kmet TE	7	2.0	14	6.5%
7	Roschon Johnson RB	5	2.0	10	5.4%
8	Kyle Monangai RB	4	1.2	5	4.4%
9	Sam Roush TE	5	1.0	5	3.2%
10	Zavion Thomas WR	6	0.8	5	2.4%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 31.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-22	7	vs NE	33	Over	33.5	69 (100%)
2026-10-18	6	@ ATL	36	Over	32.5	77 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIN	26	Under	31.5	64 (86%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CAR	29	Under	32.5	75 (100%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	42	Over	32.5	81 (100%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	48	Over	40.5	78 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	33	Over	31.5	55 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	42	Over	31.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	34	Over	25.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	28	Under	29.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	35	Over	—	70 (100%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	36	Over	32.5	87 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	35	Over	38.5	65 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	32	Over	30.5	75 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	36	Over	36.5	68 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ CIN	34	Over	32.5	80 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	38	Over	37.5	63 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	26	Under	30.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	29	Under	32.5	64 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LV	37	Over	39.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DAL	28	Under	27.5	59 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	@ DET	30	Under	39.5	57 (84%)
2025-09-08	1	vs MIN	35	Over	35.5	67 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ GB	29	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-12-26	17	vs SEA	28	Under	—	61 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	vs DET	40	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-16	15	@ MIN	31	Under	—	64 (96%)
2024-12-08	14	@ SF	23	Under	—	49 (92%)
2024-11-28	13	@ DET	39	Over	—	67 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs MIN	47	Over	—	76 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	vs GB	31	Under	—	72 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NE	30	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ARI	41	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ WAS	24	Under	—	63 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	vs JAX	29	Under	—	63 (95%)
2024-10-06	5	vs CAR	29	Under	—	72 (96%)
2024-09-29	4	vs LA	23	Under	—	60 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ IND	52	Over	—	90 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ HOU	37	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs TEN	29	Under	—	56 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 32.5Underdog 32.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 6m ago.