NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Patrick Mahomes QB

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

33.5 Pass Att O -103U -124

Hit rate · All 56%22/39 Odds imply 47.8% Over

Season avg: 31.8
Graph avg: 34.8
Graph median: 34.024–47
Over the close: 40%8/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds245.7▼-10.5

Att31.8▼-4.0

Cmp%64.9%▲+2.2

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.7▼-0.1

Rush Yds11.8▼-18.3

Snaps62.5▼-4.2

Snap %100.0%▲+2.6

33.5

2024

28

Sep 05
25

Sep 15
39

Sep 22
29

Sep 29
39

Oct 07
27

Oct 20
38

Oct 27
44

Nov 04
42

Nov 10
33

Nov 17
37

Nov 24
46

Nov 29
37

Dec 08
38

Dec 15
41

Dec 21
38

Dec 25
25

Jan 18
26

Jan 26
32

Feb 09
2025

39

Sep 05
29

Sep 14
37

Sep 21
37

Sep 28
41

Oct 06
30

Oct 12
35

Oct 19
34

Oct 27
34

Nov 02
45

Nov 16
46

Nov 23
34

Nov 27
33

Dec 07
28

Dec 14
2026

27

Sep 14
47

Sep 20
24

Sep 27
30

Oct 04
30

Oct 18
33

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 33.5

Home 52% 11/21 · avg 34.7
Away 61% 11/18 · avg 34.9
vs DEN 67% 2/3 · avg 38.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 31.5 67% 26/39
O 32.5 64% 25/39
O 33.5 Today 56% 22/39
O 34.5 49% 19/39
O 35.5 46% 18/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds215.7#25
Yds/Att5.9#32
Cmp%55.4%#32
Pass TD1.1#28
Pass Att36.8#3

QBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced DEN this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+5.4

Avg diff %+18%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jacoby Brissett	48	39.0	+23%
Oct 15	Sam Darnold	51	25.2	+102%
Oct 11	Justin Herbert	24	31.2	-23%
Oct 04	Brock Purdy	30	30.2	-1%
Sep 27	Matthew Stafford	55	37.2	+48%
Sep 20	Trevor Lawrence	29	31.0	-6%
Sep 14	Patrick Mahomes	27	32.8	-18%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%12.5 yds	5%12.4 yds	8%11.7 yds
Short	25%6.6 yds	18%6.4 yds	39%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 33.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	33	Under	32.5	53 (100%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	30	Under	30.5	61 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	30	Under	32.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	24	Under	30.5	52 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	47	Over	30.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	27	Under	33.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	28	Under	33.5	56 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	33	Under	34.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	34	Over	34.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	46	Over	37.5	96 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	45	Over	47.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	34	Over	34.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	34	Over	31.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	35	Over	33.5	65 (80%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	30	Under	37.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	41	Over	39.5	64 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	37	Over	38.5	67 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	37	Over	34.5	72 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	29	Under	36.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	39	Over	35.5	61 (100%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	32	Under	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs BUF	26	Under	—	66 (100%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	25	Under	—	51 (100%)
2024-12-25	17	@ PIT	38	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-12-21	16	vs HOU	41	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CLE	38	Over	—	67 (89%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LAC	37	Over	—	69 (100%)
2024-11-29	13	vs LV	46	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CAR	37	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ BUF	33	Under	—	55 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DEN	42	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-11-04	9	vs TB	44	Over	—	85 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LV	38	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ SF	27	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-10-07	5	vs NO	39	Over	—	84 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LAC	29	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ATL	39	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CIN	25	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-09-05	1	vs BAL	28	Under	—	54 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 33.5Underdog 33.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 8m ago.