NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Dak Prescott QB

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

33.5 Pass Att O -124U -103

Hit rate · Last 10 60%6/10 Odds imply 52.2% Over

Season avg: 39.0
Graph avg: 35.1
Graph median: 35.511–54
Over the close: 67%6/9

2026 per game

Pass Yds264.4▼-3.3

Att39.0▲+3.7

Cmp%65.2%▼-2.1

Pass TD1.9▲+0.1

INT0.7▲+0.1

Rush Yds11.6▲+1.2

Snaps67.3▲+0.5

Snap %100.0%▲+4.9

33.5

2025

30

Dec 21
37

Dec 25
11

Jan 04
2026

34

Sep 13
31

Sep 20
40

Sep 27
45

Oct 04
42

Oct 08
54

Oct 18
27

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 33.5

Home 71% 10/14 · avg 38.6
Away 56% 10/18 · avg 34.4
vs ARI 100% 1/1 · avg 39.0

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 31.5 60% 6/10
O 32.5 60% 6/10
O 33.5 Today 60% 6/10
O 34.5 50% 5/10
O 35.5 50% 5/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds249.1#8
Yds/Att8.0#3
Cmp%64.4%#13
Pass TD2.5#1
Pass Att31.2#25

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: pass att in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-3.8

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average17% (1/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Bo Nix	29	31.5	-8%
Oct 18	Matthew Stafford	33	40.8	-19%
Oct 11	Jared Goff	30	38.6	-22%
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	29	25.8	+12%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	27	30.7	-12%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	27	30.6	-12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.5 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.2 yds	35%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Att	vs 33.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	27	Under	35.5	68 (100%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	54	Over	36.5	78 (100%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	42	Over	33.5	60 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	45	Over	35.5	78 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	40	Over	36.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	31	Under	34.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	34	Over	33.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	11	Under	—	28 (51%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	37	Over	36.5	92 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	30	Under	38.5	53 (91%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 33.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 9m ago.