NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Patrick Mahomes QB

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

223.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 5 80%4/5 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 245.7
Graph avg: 258.0
Graph median: 246.0165–382
Over the close: 60%3/5

2026 per game

Pass Yds245.7▼-10.5

Att31.8▼-4.0

Cmp%64.9%▲+2.2

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.7▼-0.1

Rush Yds11.8▼-18.3

Snaps62.5▼-4.2

Snap %100.0%▲+2.6

223.5

2026

382

Sep 20
246

Sep 27
225

Oct 04
272

Oct 18
165

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 223.5

Home 67% 14/21 · avg 255.5
Away 72% 13/18 · avg 239.0
vs DEN 67% 2/3 · avg 242.0

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 203.5 80% 4/5
O 213.5 80% 4/5
O 223.5 Today 80% 4/5
O 233.5 60% 3/5
O 243.5 60% 3/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds215.7#25
Yds/Att5.9#32
Cmp%55.4%#32
Pass TD1.1#28
Pass Att36.8#3

QBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced DEN this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.9

Avg diff %-1%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jacoby Brissett	272	221.3	+23%
Oct 15	Sam Darnold	278	202.4	+37%
Oct 11	Justin Herbert	121	204.0	-41%
Oct 04	Brock Purdy	218	255.0	-15%
Sep 27	Matthew Stafford	390	266.5	+46%
Sep 20	Trevor Lawrence	189	258.2	-27%
Sep 14	Patrick Mahomes	184	258.0	-29%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%12.5 yds	5%12.4 yds	8%11.7 yds
Short	25%6.6 yds	18%6.4 yds	39%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 223.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	165	Under	220.5	53 (100%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	272	Over	223.5	61 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	225	Over	238.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	246	Over	235.5	52 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	382	Over	222.5	80 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 223.5Underdog 224.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 7m ago.