NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Patrick Mahomes QB

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

223.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 69%27/39 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 245.7
Graph avg: 247.9
Graph median: 257.0151–382
Over the close: 50%10/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds245.7▼-10.5

Att31.8▼-4.0

Cmp%64.9%▲+2.2

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.7▼-0.1

Rush Yds11.8▼-18.3

Snaps62.5▼-4.2

Snap %100.0%▲+2.6

223.5

2024

291

Sep 05
151

Sep 15
217

Sep 22
245

Sep 29
331

Oct 07
154

Oct 20
262

Oct 27
291

Nov 04
266

Nov 10
196

Nov 17
269

Nov 24
306

Nov 29
210

Dec 08
159

Dec 15
260

Dec 21
320

Dec 25
177

Jan 18
245

Jan 26
257

Feb 09
2025

258

Sep 05
187

Sep 14
224

Sep 21
270

Sep 28
318

Oct 06
257

Oct 12
286

Oct 19
299

Oct 27
250

Nov 02
276

Nov 16
352

Nov 23
261

Nov 27
160

Dec 07
189

Dec 14
2026

184

Sep 14
382

Sep 20
246

Sep 27
225

Oct 04
272

Oct 18
165

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 223.5

Home 67% 14/21 · avg 255.5
Away 72% 13/18 · avg 239.0
vs DEN 67% 2/3 · avg 242.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 203.5 74% 29/39
O 213.5 72% 28/39
O 223.5 Today 69% 27/39
O 233.5 64% 25/39
O 243.5 64% 25/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds215.7#25
Yds/Att5.9#32
Cmp%55.4%#32
Pass TD1.1#28
Pass Att36.8#3

QBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced DEN this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.9

Avg diff %-1%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jacoby Brissett	272	221.3	+23%
Oct 15	Sam Darnold	278	202.4	+37%
Oct 11	Justin Herbert	121	204.0	-41%
Oct 04	Brock Purdy	218	255.0	-15%
Sep 27	Matthew Stafford	390	266.5	+46%
Sep 20	Trevor Lawrence	189	258.2	-27%
Sep 14	Patrick Mahomes	184	258.0	-29%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%12.5 yds	5%12.4 yds	8%11.7 yds
Short	25%6.6 yds	18%6.4 yds	39%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 223.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	165	Under	220.5	53 (100%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	272	Over	223.5	61 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	225	Over	238.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	246	Over	235.5	52 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	382	Over	222.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	184	Under	224.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	189	Under	217.5	56 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	160	Under	194.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	261	Over	260.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	352	Over	275.5	96 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	276	Over	314.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	250	Over	261.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	299	Over	290.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	286	Over	310.5	65 (80%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	257	Over	255.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	318	Over	310.5	64 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	270	Over	278.5	67 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	224	Over	235.5	72 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	187	Under	150.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	258	Over	248.5	61 (100%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	257	Over	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs BUF	245	Over	—	66 (100%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	177	Under	—	51 (100%)
2024-12-25	17	@ PIT	320	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-12-21	16	vs HOU	260	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CLE	159	Under	—	67 (89%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LAC	210	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-11-29	13	vs LV	306	Over	—	71 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CAR	269	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ BUF	196	Under	—	55 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DEN	266	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-11-04	9	vs TB	291	Over	—	85 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LV	262	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ SF	154	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-10-07	5	vs NO	331	Over	—	84 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LAC	245	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ATL	217	Under	—	74 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CIN	151	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-09-05	1	vs BAL	291	Over	—	54 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 223.5Underdog 224.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 8m ago.