NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Dak Prescott QB

DAL vs ARI · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

278.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 41%13/32 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 264.4
Graph avg: 261.9
Graph median: 262.570–379
Over the close: 48%10/21

2026 per game

Pass Yds264.4▼-3.3

Att39.0▲+3.7

Cmp%65.2%▼-2.1

Pass TD1.9▲+0.1

INT0.7▲+0.1

Rush Yds11.6▲+1.2

Snaps67.3▲+0.5

Snap %100.0%▲+4.9

278.5

2024

179

Sep 08
293

Sep 15
379

Sep 22
221

Sep 26
352

Oct 06
178

Oct 13
243

Oct 27
133

Nov 03
2025

188

Sep 04
361

Sep 14
251

Sep 21
319

Sep 28
237

Oct 05
261

Oct 12
264

Oct 19
188

Oct 26
250

Nov 03
268

Nov 17
354

Nov 23
320

Nov 27
376

Dec 04
294

Dec 14
244

Dec 21
307

Dec 25
70

Jan 04
2026

175

Sep 13
279

Sep 20
276

Sep 27
335

Oct 04
316

Oct 08
258

Oct 18
212

Oct 26
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 278.5

Home 64% 9/14 · avg 294.8
Away 22% 4/18 · avg 236.3
vs ARI 0% 0/1 · avg 250.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 258.5 53% 17/32
O 268.5 44% 14/32
O 278.5 Today 41% 13/32
O 288.5 38% 12/32
O 298.5 31% 10/32

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds249.1#8
Yds/Att8.0#3
Cmp%64.4%#13
Pass TD2.5#1
Pass Att31.2#25

QBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main QB who faced ARI this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+21.4

Avg diff %+17%

Beat their average67% (4/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Bo Nix	222	174.8	+27%
Oct 18	Matthew Stafford	222	294.5	-25%
Oct 11	Jared Goff	271	303.4	-11%
Oct 04	Jameis Winston	250	141.4	+77%
Sep 27	Brock Purdy	297	241.8	+23%
Sep 13	Justin Herbert	209	186.4	+12%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.6 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%10.5 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.1 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.4 yds#17	3%13.8 yds#18	11%11.2 yds#13
Short	30%6.9 yds#3	18%7.8 yds#13	30%6.9 yds#3

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.5 yds	4%23.2 yds	6%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.6 yds	14%5.2 yds	35%5.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	7	11.6	81	30.8%
2	George Pickens WR	7	8.3	58	22.1%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	7	5.7	40	15.1%
4	Jake Ferguson TE	7	3.6	25	9.3%
5	Javonte Williams RB	7	3.1	22	8.5%
6	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	7	1.9	13	4.7%
7	Jonathan Mingo WR	5	1.6	8	4.3%
8	KaVontae Turpin WR	6	1.2	7	3.0%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	4	1.2	5	2.6%

Game log · 32 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 278.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-26	7	@ PHI	212	Under	263.5	68 (100%)
2026-10-18	6	@ GB	258	Under	274.5	78 (100%)
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	316	Over	271.5	60 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	335	Over	266.5	78 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	276	Under	270.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	279	Over	266.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	175	Under	261.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	70	Under	—	28 (51%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	307	Over	297.5	92 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	244	Under	300.5	53 (91%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	294	Over	305.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	376	Over	355.5	82 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	320	Over	310.5	72 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	354	Over	315.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	268	Under	270.5	67 (100%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	250	Under	—	67 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	188	Under	235.5	65 (88%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	264	Under	270.5	67 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	261	Under	307.5	55 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	237	Under	235.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs GB	319	Over	—	69 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CHI	251	Under	264.5	64 (86%)
2025-09-14	2	vs NYG	361	Over	250.5	89 (100%)
2025-09-04	1	@ PHI	188	Under	245.5	61 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ATL	133	Under	—	47 (61%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SF	243	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	vs DET	178	Under	—	51 (74%)
2024-10-06	5	@ PIT	352	Over	—	76 (100%)
2024-09-26	4	@ NYG	221	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs BAL	379	Over	—	80 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs NO	293	Over	—	67 (96%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CLE	179	Under	—	62 (98%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 274.5PrizePicks 276.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: FanDuel, updated 9m ago.