NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Baker Mayfield QB

TB vs ATL · Sun Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O +124U -158

Hit rate · Last 20 35%7/20 Odds imply 42.2% Over

Season avg: 0.8
Graph avg: 1.3
Graph median: 1.00–3
Over the close: 15%3/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds169.8▼-47.5

Att26.8▼-5.2

Cmp%63.6%▲+0.4

Pass TD0.8▼-0.8

INT0.5▼-0.1

Rush Yds16.5▼-6.0

Snaps61.0▼-3.6

Snap %96.0%▼-1.1

1.5

2025

2

Sep 15
1

Sep 21
2

Sep 28
2

Oct 05
2

Oct 12
1

Oct 20
0

Oct 26
3

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
1

Nov 23
1

Nov 30
1

Dec 07
2

Dec 11
1

Dec 21
2

Dec 28
1

Jan 03
2026

0

Sep 13
1

Sep 20
1

Sep 27
1

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 60% 12/20 · avg 2.0
Away 47% 9/19 · avg 1.6
vs ATL 100% 4/4 · avg 2.8

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 90% 18/20
O 1.5 Today 35% 7/20
O 2.5 5% 1/20
O 3.5 0% 0/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs ATL

What ATL allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds263.1#2
Yds/Att6.8#19
Cmp%63.5%#17
Pass TD1.5#14
Pass Att38.9#1

QBs vs ATL · 2026

Each main QB who faced ATL this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.1

Avg diff %+13%

Beat their average43% (3/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Brock Purdy	1	2.3	-57%
Oct 18	Caleb Williams	1	1.3	-25%
Oct 11	Tyler Huntley	2	0.7	+200%
Oct 05	Tyler Shough	1	2.0	-50%
Sep 24	Jordan Love	2	1.8	+9%
Sep 20	Bryce Young	3	1.8	+67%
Sep 13	Aaron Rodgers	1	2.0	-50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.9 yds	4%13.4 yds	6%8.5 yds
Short	34%5.1 yds	14%7.2 yds	36%5.3 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ATL defense

ATL defense: Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.6 yds#27	3%19.0 yds#4	8%9.4 yds#22
Short	32%6.4 yds#8	14%6.6 yds#22	33%5.3 yds#19

Throws ATL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.8 yds	5%11.9 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	32%5.5 yds	15%6.9 yds	32%6.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	6	8.2	49	25.6%
2	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	7	4.9	34	19.9%
3	Cade Otton TE	7	4.3	30	15.3%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	6	3.8	23	12.7%
5	Bucky Irving RB	7	3.3	23	12.4%
6	Tez Johnson WR	7	2.1	15	8.4%
7	Kenny Gainwell RB	7	2.4	17	8.0%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	7	0.3	2	1.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ CAR	1	Under	1.5	57 (90%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	1	Under	1.5	65 (94%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	1	Under	1.5	65 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	0	Under	1.5	57 (100%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	1	Under	1.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	2	Over	1.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	1	Under	1.5	64 (100%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	2	Over	2.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	1	Under	1.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	1	Under	1.5	61 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	@ LA	1	Under	1.5	39 (56%)
2025-11-16	11	@ BUF	1	Under	1.5	69 (99%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NE	3	Over	2.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ NO	0	Under	1.5	56 (97%)
2025-10-20	7	@ DET	1	Under	1.5	68 (99%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SF	2	Over	2.5	53 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ SEA	2	Over	1.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs PHI	2	Over	2.5	72 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs NYJ	1	Under	1.5	72 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	@ HOU	2	Over	2.5	80 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.