NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Patrick Mahomes QB

KC vs DEN · Sun Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

1.5 Pass TDs O +166U -215

Hit rate · All 46%18/39 Odds imply 35.5% Over

Season avg: 1.5
Graph avg: 1.6
Graph median: 1.00–4
Over the close: 35%7/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds245.7▼-10.5

Att31.8▼-4.0

Cmp%64.9%▲+2.2

Pass TD1.5▼-0.1

INT0.7▼-0.1

Rush Yds11.8▼-18.3

Snaps62.5▼-4.2

Snap %100.0%▲+2.6

1.5

2024

1

Sep 05
2

Sep 15
2

Sep 22
1

Sep 29
0

Oct 07
0

Oct 20
2

Oct 27
3

Nov 04
1

Nov 10
3

Nov 17
3

Nov 24
1

Nov 29
1

Dec 08
2

Dec 15
1

Dec 21
3

Dec 25
1

Jan 18
1

Jan 26
3

Feb 09
2025

1

Sep 05
1

Sep 14
1

Sep 21
4

Sep 28
1

Oct 06
3

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
3

Oct 27
0

Nov 02
1

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
4

Nov 27
0

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
2026

2

Sep 14
3

Sep 20
2

Sep 27
2

Oct 04
0

Oct 18
0

Oct 25
?

Nov 01

Closing line = market consensus, from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 1.5

Home 38% 8/21 · avg 1.5
Away 56% 10/18 · avg 1.7
vs DEN 33% 1/3 · avg 1.3

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 0.5 80% 31/39
O 1.5 Today 46% 18/39
O 2.5 28% 11/39
O 3.5 5% 2/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs DEN

What DEN allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds215.7#25
Yds/Att5.9#32
Cmp%55.4%#32
Pass TD1.1#28
Pass Att36.8#3

QBs vs DEN · 2026

Each main QB who faced DEN this season: pass tds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-0.6

Avg diff %-25%

Beat their average29% (2/7)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 25	Jacoby Brissett	1	1.5	-33%
Oct 15	Sam Darnold	0	1.6	-100%
Oct 11	Justin Herbert	1	0.8	+25%
Oct 04	Brock Purdy	2	2.2	-8%
Sep 27	Matthew Stafford	2	2.0	+0%
Sep 20	Trevor Lawrence	0	2.8	-100%
Sep 14	Patrick Mahomes	2	1.4	+43%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%13.2 yds	5%11.2 yds	6%11.5 yds
Short	28%5.5 yds	15%6.5 yds	41%5.7 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DEN defense

DEN defense: Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%4.2 yds#31	3%11.3 yds#27	7%6.7 yds#28
Short	27%6.7 yds#6	16%7.8 yds#11	39%4.7 yds#31

Throws DEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%12.5 yds	5%12.4 yds	8%11.7 yds
Short	25%6.6 yds	18%6.4 yds	39%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season, with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	6	5.8	35	19.6%
3	Travis Kelce TE	6	5.8	35	18.6%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	6	4.5	27	14.3%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	6	2.3	14	8.4%
7	Andrew Armstrong WR	2	2.0	4	6.6%
8	Jalen Royals WR	6	1.8	11	6.1%
9	Emmett Johnson RB	6	1.8	11	6.0%
10	Cyrus Allen WR	4	1.5	6	5.2%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass TDs	vs 1.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-25	7	@ SEA	0	Under	1.5	53 (100%)
2026-10-18	6	vs LAC	0	Under	1.5	61 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	2	Over	1.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	2	Over	1.5	52 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	3	Over	1.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	2	Over	1.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	0	Under	0.5	56 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	0	Under	0.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	4	Over	3.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	0	Under	1.5	96 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	1	Under	1.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	0	Under	0.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	3	Over	2.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	3	Over	3.5	65 (80%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	3	Over	3.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	1	Under	1.5	64 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	4	Over	3.5	67 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	1	Under	1.5	72 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	1	Under	1.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	1	Under	1.5	61 (100%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	3	Over	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs BUF	1	Under	—	66 (100%)
2025-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	1	Under	—	51 (100%)
2024-12-25	17	@ PIT	3	Over	—	62 (100%)
2024-12-21	16	vs HOU	1	Under	—	74 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	@ CLE	2	Over	—	67 (89%)
2024-12-08	14	vs LAC	1	Under	—	69 (100%)
2024-11-29	13	vs LV	1	Under	—	71 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CAR	3	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ BUF	3	Over	—	55 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	vs DEN	1	Under	—	68 (100%)
2024-11-04	9	vs TB	3	Over	—	85 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	@ LV	2	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ SF	0	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-10-07	5	vs NO	0	Under	—	84 (100%)
2024-09-29	4	@ LAC	1	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	@ ATL	2	Over	—	74 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs CIN	2	Over	—	65 (100%)
2024-09-05	1	vs BAL	1	Under	—	54 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 1.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs and snap counts from games already played. Target zones from play-by-play. Closing lines: market consensus. Lines: DraftKings, updated 7m ago.