NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kenny Gainwell RB

TB vs PIT · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

11.5 Rush Yds O -118U -106

Hit rate · Last 20 70%14/20 Odds imply 51.3% Over

Season avg: 8.8
Graph avg: 27.3
Graph median: 19.0-4–99
Over the close: 25%1/4

2026 per game

Carries3.4▼-3.3

Rush Yds8.8▼-22.1

Rush TD0.0▼-0.3

Targets3.2▼-1.9

Rec2.2▼-2.1

Rec Yds10.8▼-17.6

11.5

2025

99

Sep 28
22

Oct 12
14

Oct 16
31

Oct 26
-1

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
24

Nov 16
92

Nov 23
20

Nov 30
15

Dec 07
80

Dec 15
50

Dec 21
26

Dec 28
10

Jan 04
20

Jan 12
2026

15

Sep 13
10

Sep 20
-4

Sep 27
5

Oct 04
18

Oct 08
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 11.5

Home 54% 14/26 · avg 20.2
Away 72% 13/18 · avg 22.7
vs PIT 100% 1/1 · avg 20.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 85% 17/20
O 6.5 80% 16/20
O 11.5 Today 70% 14/20
O 16.5 55% 11/20
O 21.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds87.8#21
Yds/Carry4.2#18
Rush TD0.4#31
Targets6.2#8
Rec Yds36.4#7

RBs vs PIT · 2026

Each main RB who faced PIT this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-12.3

Avg diff %-6%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jonathan Taylor	45	88.2	-49%
Oct 01	Quinshon Judkins	53	42.0	+26%
Sep 27	Chase Brown	61	46.2	+32%
Sep 20	Rhamondre Stevenson	43	46.0	-7%
Sep 13	Bijan Robinson	83	124.2	-33%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.6 yds	4%15.1 yds	8%9.4 yds
Short	31%5.5 yds	15%7.0 yds	34%5.6 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.4 yds#2	4%11.9 yds#28	5%19.2 yds#1
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	20%6.3 yds#21	26%5.7 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	2%45.0 yds
Short	49%5.4 yds	16%7.1 yds	33%3.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	5	6.6	33	22.9%
2	Cade Otton TE	5	5.4	27	18.6%
3	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	5	4.2	21	14.9%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	4	4.0	16	13.1%
5	Bucky Irving RB	5	3.6	18	12.3%
6	Kenny Gainwell RB	5	3.2	16	10.8%
7	Tez Johnson WR	5	2.0	10	6.6%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	5	0.4	2	1.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 11.5	Close
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	18	Over	12.5
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	5	Under	14.5
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	-4	Under	18.5
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	10	Under	26.5
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	15	Over	—
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	20	Over	—
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	10	Under	—
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	26	Over	—
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	50	Over	—
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	80	Over	—
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	15	Over	—
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	20	Over	—
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	92	Over	—
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	24	Over	—
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	0	Under	—
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	-1	Under	—
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	31	Over	—
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	14	Over	—
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	22	Over	—
2025-09-28	4	vs MIN	99	Over	—

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 11.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.