NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Colby Parkinson TE

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

13.5 Rec Yds O -109U -115

Hit rate · All 59%23/39 Odds imply 49.4% Over

Season avg: 6.0
Graph avg: 23.1
Graph median: 17.0-6–75
Over the close: 56%9/16

2026 per game

Targets1.8▼-2.4

Rec1.0▼-2.0

Rec Yds6.0▼-26.9

Rec TD0.0▼-0.5

Snaps45.2▲+0.7

Snap %64.0%▼-0.4

13.5

2024

47

Sep 08
12

Sep 15
21

Sep 22
33

Sep 29
52

Oct 06
32

Oct 20
17

Oct 24
0

Nov 03
19

Nov 17
10

Nov 24
13

Dec 01
11

Dec 08
21

Dec 12
0

Dec 22
0

Dec 28
6

Jan 05
13

Jan 13
9

Jan 19
2025

-6

Sep 07
17

Sep 28
0

Oct 02
47

Oct 19
10

Nov 02
41

Nov 09
14

Nov 16
41

Nov 23
27

Nov 30
32

Dec 07
75

Dec 14
21

Dec 18
53

Dec 29
36

Jan 04
34

Jan 10
56

Jan 18
62

Jan 25
2026

6

Sep 10
15

Sep 21
0

Sep 27
3

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 13.5

Home 50% 10/20 · avg 18.6
Away 68% 13/19 · avg 27.7
vs ARI 50% 2/4 · avg 20.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 3.5 82% 32/39
O 8.5 77% 30/39
O 13.5 Today 59% 23/39
O 18.5 49% 19/39
O 23.5 38% 15/39

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds78.7#2
Receptions6.8#3
Targets8.7#3
Yds/Target9.0#3
Rec TD1.0#3

TEs vs ARI · 2026

Each main TE who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+6.2

Avg diff %-4%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Sam LaPorta	88	57.0	+54%
Oct 04	Isaiah Likely	66	54.5	+21%
Sep 27	George Kittle	82	46.5	+76%
Sep 20	AJ Barner	8	26.0	-69%
Sep 13	Charlie Kolar	0	29.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	18%8.4 yds
Short	23%5.9 yds	23%7.1 yds	36%7.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 39 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 13.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	vs BUF	3	Under	17.5	53 (65%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DEN	0	Under	16.5	37 (43%)
2026-09-21	2	vs NYG	15	Over	30.5	44 (71%)
2026-09-10	1	vs SF	6	Under	18.5	47 (77%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ SEA	62	Over	26.5	47 (77%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ CHI	56	Over	19.5	53 (68%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CAR	34	Over	15.5	57 (75%)
2026-01-04	18	vs ARI	36	Over	35.5	63 (84%)
2025-12-29	17	@ ATL	53	Over	33.5	51 (78%)
2025-12-18	16	@ SEA	21	Over	21.5	79 (86%)
2025-12-14	15	vs DET	75	Over	64.5	62 (86%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ARI	32	Over	20.5	48 (69%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CAR	27	Over	20.5	35 (67%)
2025-11-23	12	vs TB	41	Over	41.5	35 (62%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SEA	14	Over	10.5	35 (69%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SF	41	Over	—	39 (57%)
2025-11-02	9	vs NO	10	Under	—	45 (56%)
2025-10-19	7	@ JAX	47	Over	—	33 (47%)
2025-10-02	5	vs SF	0	Under	10.5	25 (37%)
2025-09-28	4	vs IND	17	Over	—	21 (28%)
2025-09-07	1	vs HOU	-6	Under	—	29 (48%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ PHI	9	Under	—	4 (6%)
2025-01-13	19 (P)	vs MIN	13	Under	—	33 (62%)
2025-01-05	18	vs SEA	6	Under	—	26 (39%)
2024-12-28	17	vs ARI	0	Under	—	23 (40%)
2024-12-22	16	@ NYJ	0	Under	—	17 (33%)
2024-12-12	15	@ SF	21	Over	—	32 (49%)
2024-12-08	14	vs BUF	11	Under	—	37 (48%)
2024-12-01	13	@ NO	13	Under	—	20 (36%)
2024-11-24	12	vs PHI	10	Under	—	19 (30%)
2024-11-17	11	@ NE	19	Over	—	19 (37%)
2024-11-03	9	@ SEA	0	Under	—	32 (42%)
2024-10-24	8	vs MIN	17	Over	—	46 (64%)
2024-10-20	7	vs LV	32	Over	—	35 (64%)
2024-10-06	5	vs GB	52	Over	—	62 (79%)
2024-09-29	4	@ CHI	33	Over	—	53 (87%)
2024-09-22	3	vs SF	21	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ ARI	12	Under	—	42 (81%)
2024-09-08	1	@ DET	47	Over	—	69 (88%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 13.5Underdog 14.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.