NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Kaleb Johnson RB

GB vs DAL · Sun Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET

11.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 40%6/15 Odds imply —

Season avg: 21.2
Graph avg: 11.7
Graph median: 4.0-2–42
Over the close: 50%3/6

2026 per game

Carries5.4▲+2.6

Rush Yds21.2▲+14.3

Rush TD0.0+0.0

Targets0.6▲+0.4

Rec0.2▲+0.1

Rec Yds2.0▲+1.1

Snaps16.5▲+11.4

Snap %26.5%▲+17.4

11.5

2025

-2

Sep 07
1

Sep 14
22

Sep 28
15

Oct 12
4

Nov 02
3

Nov 09
15

Nov 16
3

Nov 30
4

Dec 07
4

Dec 15
2026

0

Sep 13
32

Sep 20
6

Sep 24
42

Oct 04
26

Oct 11
?

Oct 19

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 11.5

Home 44% 4/9 · avg 10.7
Away 33% 2/6 · avg 13.2
vs DAL No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 80% 12/15
O 6.5 40% 6/15
O 11.5 Today 40% 6/15
O 16.5 27% 4/15
O 21.5 27% 4/15

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs DAL

What DAL allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds109.9#7
Yds/Carry4.7#5
Rush TD1.4#2
Targets4.6#26
Rec Yds30.5#18

RBs vs DAL · 2026

Each main RB who faced DAL this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+21.8

Avg diff %+35%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Bucky Irving	165	60.2	+174%
Oct 04	Woody Marks	22	31.8	-31%
Sep 27	Derrick Henry	89	96.8	-8%
Sep 20	Jacory Croskey-Merritt	43	49.0	-12%
Sep 13	Cam Skattebo	81	53.2	+52%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

GB offense

GB offense: Share of GB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%12.4 yds	5%19.9 yds	10%15.4 yds
Short	27%5.8 yds	16%6.1 yds	35%4.8 yds

Share of GB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DAL defense

DAL defense: Throws DAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.5 yds#9	2%24.3 yds#1	9%10.6 yds#19
Short	27%7.4 yds#2	16%10.1 yds#1	37%6.7 yds#3

Throws DAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 3 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	0%
Short	20%0.0 yds	0%	80%4.8 yds

Last 3 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of GB targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Matthew Golden WR	5	8.8	44	24.0%
2	Christian Watson WR	5	8.0	40	22.7%
3	Tucker Kraft TE	5	5.8	29	16.1%
4	Pierre Strong RB	1	4.0	4	12.9%
5	Jayden Reed WR	2	4.0	8	10.5%
6	MarShawn Lloyd RB	5	2.6	13	7.7%
7	Skyy Moore WR	5	2.8	14	7.3%
8	Mark Redman TE	1	2.0	2	6.7%
9	Jonnu Smith TE	3	2.3	7	5.6%
10	Bo Melton WR	5	1.6	8	4.8%

Game log · 15 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 11.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CHI	26	Over	32.5	9 (15%)
2026-10-04	4	@ TB	42	Over	31.5	17 (28%)
2026-09-24	3	vs ATL	6	Under	37.5	24 (36%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NYJ	32	Over	—	16 (27%)
2026-09-13	1	@ MIN	0	Under	—	—
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	4	Under	3.5	2 (3%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	4	Under	—	3 (6%)
2025-11-30	13	vs BUF	3	Under	—	3 (7%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	15	Over	—	8 (12%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	3	Under	—	4 (8%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	4	Under	—	5 (8%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	15	Over	—	11 (19%)
2025-09-28	4	vs MIN	22	Over	10.5	11 (21%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	1	Under	—	2 (3%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NYJ	-2	Under	21.5	2 (4%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 11.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 13m ago.