NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

RJ Harvey RB

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

18.5 Rush Yds

Hit rate · All 58%14/24 Odds imply —

Season avg: 16.2
Graph avg: 28.2
Graph median: 25.00–75
Over the close: 35%8/23

2026 per game

Carries4.2▼-4.5

Rush Yds16.2▼-15.2

Rush TD0.2▼-0.2

Targets5.2▲+1.5

Rec4.6▲+1.7

Rec Yds32.6▲+10.3

Snaps25.2▼-4.1

Snap %41.6%▼-2.1

18.5

2025

70

Sep 07
8

Sep 14
2

Sep 21
58

Sep 29
12

Oct 05
4

Oct 12
0

Oct 19
46

Oct 26
5

Nov 02
9

Nov 06
30

Nov 16
35

Nov 30
75

Dec 07
65

Dec 14
50

Dec 21
43

Dec 25
28

Jan 04
20

Jan 17
37

Jan 25
2026

18

Sep 14
6

Sep 27
25

Oct 04
7

Oct 11
25

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 18.5

Home 77% 10/13 · avg 34.2
Away 36% 4/11 · avg 21.3
vs ARI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 8.5 71% 17/24
O 13.5 62% 15/24
O 18.5 Today 58% 14/24
O 23.5 54% 13/24
O 28.5 42% 10/24

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds116.5#1
Yds/Carry4.4#9
Rush TD0.7#10
Targets5.9#11
Rec Yds38.2#6

RBs vs ARI · 2026

Each main RB who faced ARI this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+18.2

Avg diff %+32%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Kyren Williams	50	68.6	-27%
Oct 11	Jahmyr Gibbs	151	88.2	+71%
Oct 04	Cam Skattebo	58	59.0	-2%
Sep 27	Christian McCaffrey	75	52.8	+42%
Sep 20	Emanuel Wilson	92	42.2	+118%
Sep 13	Omarion Hampton	43	49.2	-13%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	2%0.0 yds
Short	38%6.8 yds	11%4.0 yds	49%6.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 24 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 18.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	25	Over	14.5	24 (40%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	7	Under	25.5	23 (37%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	25	Over	15.5	29 (44%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	6	Under	20.5	24 (36%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	18	Under	17.5	26 (51%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs NE	37	Over	39.5	31 (53%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	20	Over	55.5	45 (62%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	28	Over	56.5	33 (56%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	43	Over	22.5	47 (65%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	50	Over	50.5	39 (59%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	65	Over	—	46 (68%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	75	Over	70.5	50 (68%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	35	Over	58.5	33 (47%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	30	Over	15.5	38 (61%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	9	Under	10.5	17 (28%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	5	Under	17.5	20 (32%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	46	Over	48.5	17 (27%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	0	Under	5.5	20 (25%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	4	Under	5.5	17 (28%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	12	Under	15.5	15 (20%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	58	Over	40.5	33 (41%)
2025-09-21	3	@ LAC	2	Under	2.5	15 (29%)
2025-09-14	2	@ IND	8	Under	10.5	19 (33%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TEN	70	Over	25.5	22 (29%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 18.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 12m ago.