NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dak Prescott QB

DAL vs GB · Sun Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET

277.5 Pass Yds O -110U -110

Hit rate · All 43%13/30 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 276.2
Graph avg: 263.7
Graph median: 266.070–379
Over the close: 53%10/19

2026 per game

Pass Yds276.2▲+8.4

Att38.4▲+3.1

Cmp%67.2%▼-0.1

Pass TD1.8+0.0

INT0.6+0.0

Rush Yds13.2▲+2.8

Snaps65.0▼-1.8

Snap %100.0%▲+4.9

277.5

2024

179

Sep 08
293

Sep 15
379

Sep 22
221

Sep 26
352

Oct 06
178

Oct 13
243

Oct 27
133

Nov 03
2025

188

Sep 04
361

Sep 14
251

Sep 21
319

Sep 28
237

Oct 05
261

Oct 12
264

Oct 19
188

Oct 26
250

Nov 03
268

Nov 17
354

Nov 23
320

Nov 27
376

Dec 04
294

Dec 14
244

Dec 21
307

Dec 25
70

Jan 04
2026

175

Sep 13
279

Sep 20
276

Sep 27
335

Oct 04
316

Oct 08
?

Oct 19

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 277.5

Home 64% 9/14 · avg 294.8
Away 25% 4/16 · avg 236.5
vs GB 100% 1/1 · avg 319.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 257.5 57% 17/30
O 267.5 50% 15/30
O 277.5 Today 43% 13/30
O 287.5 40% 12/30
O 297.5 33% 10/30

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs GB

What GB allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds225.6#18
Yds/Att7.0#18
Cmp%63.3%#16
Pass TD1.5#15
Pass Att32.4#14

QBs vs GB · 2026

Each main QB who faced GB this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-31.0

Avg diff %-10%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Tyson Bagent	87	161.0	-46%
Oct 04	Jalon Daniels	148	94.5	+57%
Sep 24	Michael Penix Jr.	256	231.5	+11%
Sep 20	Geno Smith	247	209.2	+18%
Sep 13	Kyler Murray	18	214.7	-92%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DAL offense

DAL offense: Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%9.5 yds	5%21.2 yds	5%14.8 yds
Short	34%6.3 yds	16%5.7 yds	33%5.8 yds

Share of DAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

GB defense

GB defense: Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%14.1 yds#7	3%11.0 yds#30	7%7.5 yds#28
Short	26%5.3 yds#23	20%6.3 yds#23	34%6.1 yds#7

Throws GB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.3 yds	5%21.2 yds	5%15.6 yds
Short	34%6.3 yds	16%5.8 yds	32%5.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of DAL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	CeeDee Lamb WR	5	10.2	51	27.3%
2	George Pickens WR	5	8.2	41	22.2%
3	Ryan Flournoy WR	5	5.4	27	14.8%
4	Javonte Williams RB	5	4.0	20	11.2%
5	Jake Ferguson TE	5	4.2	21	11.1%
6	Jonathan Mingo WR	3	2.3	7	5.8%
7	KaVontae Turpin WR	5	1.4	7	3.6%
8	Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	5	1.2	6	3.3%
9	Luke Schoonmaker TE	3	1.0	3	2.7%
10	Tyler Goodson RB	2	1.0	2	2.4%

Game log · 30 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 277.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-08	5	vs TB	316	Over	271.5	60 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ HOU	335	Over	266.5	78 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs BAL	276	Under	270.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs WAS	279	Over	266.5	55 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ NYG	175	Under	261.5	58 (100%)
2026-01-04	18	@ NYG	70	Under	—	28 (51%)
2025-12-25	17	@ WAS	307	Over	297.5	92 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	vs LAC	244	Under	300.5	53 (91%)
2025-12-14	15	vs MIN	294	Over	305.5	70 (100%)
2025-12-04	14	@ DET	376	Over	355.5	82 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	vs KC	320	Over	310.5	72 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PHI	354	Over	315.5	74 (100%)
2025-11-17	11	@ LV	268	Under	270.5	67 (100%)
2025-11-03	9	vs ARI	250	Under	—	67 (100%)
2025-10-26	8	@ DEN	188	Under	235.5	65 (88%)
2025-10-19	7	vs WAS	264	Under	270.5	67 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ CAR	261	Under	307.5	55 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ NYJ	237	Under	235.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs GB	319	Over	—	69 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ CHI	251	Under	264.5	64 (86%)
2025-09-14	2	vs NYG	361	Over	250.5	89 (100%)
2025-09-04	1	@ PHI	188	Under	245.5	61 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ATL	133	Under	—	47 (61%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SF	243	Under	—	62 (100%)
2024-10-13	6	vs DET	178	Under	—	51 (74%)
2024-10-06	5	@ PIT	352	Over	—	76 (100%)
2024-09-26	4	@ NYG	221	Under	—	56 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs BAL	379	Over	—	80 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs NO	293	Over	—	67 (96%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CLE	179	Under	—	62 (98%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 274.5PrizePicks 278.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Circa, updated 12m ago.