NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brock Bowers TE

LV vs BUF · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

80.5 Rec Yds O -112U -112

Hit rate · All 34%11/32 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 104.0
Graph avg: 68.3
Graph median: 58.019–140
Over the close: 47%7/15

2026 per game

Targets11.3▲+4.2

Rec8.0▲+2.7

Rec Yds104.0▲+47.3

Rec TD1.0▲+0.4

Snaps55.3▲+4.9

Snap %77.0%▼-8.9

80.5

2024

58

Sep 08
98

Sep 15
41

Sep 22
19

Sep 29
97

Oct 06
71

Oct 13
93

Oct 20
58

Oct 27
45

Nov 03
126

Nov 17
38

Nov 24
140

Nov 29
49

Dec 08
35

Dec 16
99

Dec 22
77

Dec 29
50

Jan 05
2025

103

Sep 07
38

Sep 15
38

Sep 21
46

Sep 28
127

Nov 02
31

Nov 06
72

Nov 17
55

Nov 23
63

Nov 30
46

Dec 07
28

Dec 14
33

Dec 21
2026

116

Sep 27
86

Oct 04
110

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 80.5

Home 20% 3/15 · avg 58.7
Away 47% 8/17 · avg 76.8
vs BUF No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 60.5 47% 15/32
O 70.5 44% 14/32
O 80.5 Today 34% 11/32
O 90.5 31% 10/32
O 100.5 19% 6/32

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds38.0#28
Receptions4.1#30
Targets6.7#23
Yds/Target5.7#29
Rec TD0.3#21

TEs vs BUF · 2026

Each main TE who faced BUF this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-6.9

Avg diff %-27%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Tyler Higbee	83	47.0	+77%
Oct 04	Eli Raridon	12	29.7	-60%
Sep 27	Oronde Gadsden II	0	21.5	-100%
Sep 17	Sam LaPorta	52	66.0	-21%
Sep 13	Dalton Schultz	35	52.2	-33%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.5 yds	3%5.3 yds	5%7.0 yds
Short	30%5.6 yds	19%7.0 yds	35%5.8 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.5 yds#14	4%8.1 yds#32	9%9.2 yds#25
Short	30%5.5 yds#22	16%6.5 yds#20	35%5.4 yds#16

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%11.0 yds	1%0.0 yds	5%15.5 yds
Short	31%7.0 yds	24%8.5 yds	34%7.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	3	11.3	34	31.3%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	5	6.0	30	17.6%
3	Tre Tucker WR	5	5.6	28	16.4%
4	Michael Mayer TE	5	5.0	25	14.3%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	5	2.8	14	8.0%
8	Malik Benson WR	5	1.6	8	5.0%
9	Ian Thomas TE	3	1.3	4	3.5%
10	Deven Thompkins WR	1	1.0	1	2.8%

Game log · 32 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 80.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NE	110	Over	74.5	42 (70%)
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	86	Over	69.5	69 (82%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	116	Over	46.5	55 (79%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	33	Under	52.5	53 (98%)
2025-12-14	15	@ PHI	28	Under	40.5	38 (90%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	46	Under	40.5	50 (100%)
2025-11-30	13	@ LAC	63	Under	65.5	47 (98%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	55	Under	29.5	76 (96%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	72	Under	75.5	58 (97%)
2025-11-06	10	@ DEN	31	Under	31.5	50 (83%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	127	Over	70.5	52 (81%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CHI	46	Under	31.5	40 (77%)
2025-09-21	3	@ WAS	38	Under	38.5	55 (83%)
2025-09-15	2	vs LAC	38	Under	38.5	54 (77%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NE	103	Over	115.5	32 (51%)
2025-01-05	18	vs LAC	50	Under	—	48 (94%)
2024-12-29	17	@ NO	77	Under	—	70 (91%)
2024-12-22	16	vs JAX	99	Over	—	70 (95%)
2024-12-16	15	vs ATL	35	Under	—	63 (94%)
2024-12-08	14	@ TB	49	Under	—	57 (85%)
2024-11-29	13	@ KC	140	Over	—	61 (90%)
2024-11-24	12	vs DEN	38	Under	—	72 (94%)
2024-11-17	11	@ MIA	126	Over	—	62 (95%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CIN	45	Under	—	55 (90%)
2024-10-27	8	vs KC	58	Under	—	53 (91%)
2024-10-20	7	@ LA	93	Over	—	66 (84%)
2024-10-13	6	vs PIT	71	Under	—	50 (79%)
2024-10-06	5	@ DEN	97	Over	—	55 (79%)
2024-09-29	4	vs CLE	19	Under	—	48 (81%)
2024-09-22	3	vs CAR	41	Under	—	42 (66%)
2024-09-15	2	@ BAL	98	Over	—	43 (68%)
2024-09-08	1	@ LAC	58	Under	—	41 (68%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 79.5Underdog 79.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.