NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Davante Adams WR

LAR vs ARI · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

58.5 Rec Yds O -114U -110

Hit rate · All 53%19/36 Odds imply 50.4% Over

Season avg: 88.2
Graph avg: 68.8
Graph median: 59.51–198
Over the close: 25%4/16

2026 per game

Targets9.0▲+0.8

Rec5.4▲+1.2

Rec Yds88.2▲+30.9

Rec TD0.8▼-0.1

Snaps56.8▲+10.4

Snap %74.0%▲+2.8

58.5

2024

59

Sep 08
110

Sep 15
40

Sep 22
30

Oct 20
54

Oct 27
91

Oct 31
31

Nov 10
72

Nov 17
66

Dec 01
109

Dec 08
198

Dec 15
68

Dec 22
47

Dec 29
88

Jan 05
2025

51

Sep 07
106

Sep 14
56

Sep 21
56

Sep 28
88

Oct 02
39

Oct 12
35

Oct 19
60

Nov 02
77

Nov 09
1

Nov 16
62

Nov 23
58

Nov 30
29

Dec 07
71

Dec 14
72

Jan 10
24

Jan 18
89

Jan 25
2026

26

Sep 10
195

Sep 21
137

Sep 27
32

Oct 04
51

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 58.5

Home 62% 10/16 · avg 67.9
Away 45% 9/20 · avg 69.6
vs ARI 0% 0/2 · avg 30.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 48.5 69% 25/36
O 53.5 64% 23/36
O 58.5 Today 53% 19/36
O 63.5 44% 16/36
O 68.5 39% 14/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds141.7#17
Receptions9.7#28
Targets15.5#30
Yds/Target9.1#5
Rec TD1.7#1

WRs vs ARI · 2026

Each main WR who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+7.1

Avg diff %+16%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Amon-Ra St. Brown	69	75.8	-9%
Oct 11	Jameson Williams	47	57.2	-18%
Oct 04	Malik Nabers	112	54.2	+106%
Oct 04	Darnell Mooney	0	27.2	-100%
Sep 27	Mike Evans	34	73.0	-53%
Sep 27	Deebo Samuel Sr.	80	31.5	+154%
Sep 20	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	155	112.4	+38%
Sep 20	Cooper Kupp	20	31.8	-37%
Sep 13	Tre Harris	20	51.2	-61%
Sep 13	Ladd McConkey	82	33.7	+144%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAR offense

LAR offense: Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%7.3 yds	3%9.9 yds	15%11.6 yds
Short	23%6.7 yds	18%7.9 yds	33%5.6 yds

Share of LAR pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%14.5 yds#5	3%14.6 yds#17	10%12.2 yds#11
Short	30%6.1 yds#12	18%8.6 yds#5	31%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	22%6.2 yds	6%8.8 yds	12%14.2 yds
Short	25%9.0 yds	18%10.9 yds	18%4.7 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Puka Nacua WR	3	15.0	45	33.9%
2	Davante Adams WR	5	9.0	45	22.6%
3	Kyren Williams RB	5	6.6	33	14.6%
4	Tyler Higbee TE	4	6.2	25	13.2%
5	Terrance Ferguson TE	3	4.0	12	12.6%
6	Konata Mumpfield WR	4	3.5	14	8.2%
7	Colby Parkinson TE	4	1.8	7	5.0%
8	Blake Corum RB	5	2.2	11	4.6%
9	Davis Allen TE	5	1.8	9	4.2%
10	Ronnie Rivers RB	1	1.0	1	3.7%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 58.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	vs BUF	51	Under	62.5	60 (73%)
2026-10-04	4	@ PHI	32	Under	59.5	80 (95%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DEN	137	Over	71.5	71 (83%)
2026-09-21	2	vs NYG	195	Over	64.5	40 (65%)
2026-09-10	1	vs SF	26	Under	52.5	33 (54%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ SEA	89	Over	50.5	37 (61%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	@ CHI	24	Under	56.5	61 (78%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CAR	72	Over	56.5	55 (72%)
2025-12-14	15	vs DET	71	Over	76.5	33 (46%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ARI	29	Under	30.5	30 (43%)
2025-11-30	13	@ CAR	58	Under	61.5	39 (75%)
2025-11-23	12	vs TB	62	Over	62.5	43 (77%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SEA	1	Under	10.5	44 (86%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SF	77	Over	85.5	35 (51%)
2025-11-02	9	vs NO	60	Over	60.5	48 (60%)
2025-10-19	7	@ JAX	35	Under	79.5	41 (59%)
2025-10-12	6	@ BAL	39	Under	—	42 (79%)
2025-10-02	5	vs SF	88	Over	—	58 (85%)
2025-09-28	4	vs IND	56	Under	—	62 (83%)
2025-09-21	3	@ PHI	56	Under	—	57 (86%)
2025-09-14	2	@ TEN	106	Over	—	49 (80%)
2025-09-07	1	vs HOU	51	Under	—	54 (90%)
2025-01-05	18	vs MIA	88	Over	—	59 (92%)
2024-12-29	17	@ BUF	47	Under	—	48 (76%)
2024-12-22	16	vs LA	68	Over	—	67 (97%)
2024-12-15	15	@ JAX	198	Over	—	54 (93%)
2024-12-08	14	@ MIA	109	Over	—	58 (85%)
2024-12-01	13	vs SEA	66	Over	—	66 (97%)
2024-11-17	11	vs IND	72	Over	—	48 (94%)
2024-11-10	10	@ ARI	31	Under	—	56 (97%)
2024-10-31	9	vs HOU	91	Over	—	45 (78%)
2024-10-27	8	@ NE	54	Under	—	58 (94%)
2024-10-20	7	@ PIT	30	Under	—	55 (96%)
2024-09-22	3	vs CAR	40	Under	—	61 (95%)
2024-09-15	2	@ BAL	110	Over	—	59 (94%)
2024-09-08	1	@ LAC	59	Over	—	58 (97%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 58.5Underdog 59.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.