NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Patrick Mahomes QB

KC vs LAC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

225.5 Pass Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 70%14/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 259.2
Graph avg: 256.3
Graph median: 257.0160–382
Over the close: 50%9/18

2026 per game

Pass Yds259.2▲+3.0

Att32.0▼-3.9

Cmp%64.1%▲+1.3

Pass TD2.2▲+0.7

INT0.5▼-0.3

Rush Yds10.2▼-19.9

Snaps65.2▼-1.5

Snap %100.0%▲+2.6

225.5

2024

245

Jan 26
257

Feb 09
2025

258

Sep 05
187

Sep 14
224

Sep 21
270

Sep 28
318

Oct 06
257

Oct 12
286

Oct 19
299

Oct 27
250

Nov 02
276

Nov 16
352

Nov 23
261

Nov 27
160

Dec 07
189

Dec 14
2026

184

Sep 14
382

Sep 20
246

Sep 27
225

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 225.5

Home 65% 13/20 · avg 254.7
Away 65% 11/17 · avg 243.4
vs LAC 50% 2/4 · avg 225.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 205.5 80% 16/20
O 215.5 80% 16/20
O 225.5 Today 70% 14/20
O 235.5 70% 14/20
O 245.5 65% 13/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds214.4#23
Yds/Att7.5#8
Cmp%62.9%#20
Pass TD1.2#24
Pass Att28.6#30

QBs vs LAC · 2026

Each main QB who faced LAC this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-20.0

Avg diff %-9%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Bo Nix	123	185.2	-34%
Oct 04	Sam Darnold	168	216.2	-22%
Sep 27	Josh Allen	204	261.2	-22%
Sep 20	Kirk Cousins	253	254.0	+0%
Sep 13	Jacoby Brissett	277	208.2	+33%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.9 yds	5%10.5 yds	8%12.4 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	17%4.9 yds	38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.8 yds#1	3%12.0 yds#26	4%12.9 yds#9
Short	33%6.1 yds#10	17%6.6 yds#19	34%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%14.2 yds	6%13.7 yds	10%10.1 yds
Short	26%6.1 yds	17%5.5 yds	36%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	4	5.5	22	18.7%
3	Travis Kelce TE	4	5.5	22	17.3%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	4	4.8	19	14.9%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	4	2.0	8	7.6%
7	Emmett Johnson RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
8	Jalen Royals WR	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Cyrus Allen WR	2	1.0	2	3.9%
10	Jake Briningstool TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 225.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	225	Under	238.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	246	Over	235.5	52 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	382	Over	222.5	80 (100%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	184	Under	224.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	189	Under	217.5	56 (92%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	160	Under	194.5	64 (100%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	261	Over	260.5	66 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	352	Over	275.5	96 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	276	Over	314.5	70 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	250	Over	261.5	60 (100%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	299	Over	290.5	69 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	286	Over	310.5	65 (80%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	257	Over	255.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	318	Over	310.5	64 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	270	Over	278.5	67 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	224	Under	235.5	72 (100%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	187	Under	150.5	60 (100%)
2025-09-05	1	@ LAC	258	Over	248.5	61 (100%)
2025-02-09	22 (P)	@ PHI	257	Over	—	56 (100%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	vs BUF	245	Over	—	66 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 224.5Underdog 224.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Caesars, updated 10m ago.