NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Geno Smith QB

NYJ vs NE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

219.5 Pass Yds O -110U -120

Hit rate · Last 10 30%3/10 Odds imply 49.0% Over

Season avg: 216.8
Graph avg: 202.7
Graph median: 191.5116–321
Over the close: 50%5/10

2026 per game

Pass Yds216.8▲+15.1

Att29.4▼-0.5

Cmp%69.4%▲+2.0

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-1.1

Rush Yds8.6▲+1.3

Snaps61.8▲+4.3

Snap %100.0%▲+3.5

219.5

2025

285

Nov 23
165

Nov 30
116

Dec 07
201

Dec 21
176

Dec 28
2026

215

Sep 13
247

Sep 20
321

Sep 27
119

Oct 04
182

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 219.5

Home 53% 10/19 · avg 228.8
Away 50% 9/18 · avg 226.8
vs NE 100% 2/2 · avg 344.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 199.5 50% 5/10
O 209.5 40% 4/10
O 219.5 Today 30% 3/10
O 229.5 30% 3/10
O 239.5 30% 3/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NE

What NE allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds195.6#29
Yds/Att5.9#31
Cmp%59.3%#29
Pass TD1.0#28
Pass Att33.4#10

QBs vs NE · 2026

Each main QB who faced NE this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-78.5

Avg diff %-31%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Kirk Cousins	243	256.5	-5%
Oct 04	Josh Allen	253	249.0	+2%
Sep 27	Trevor Lawrence	182	248.0	-27%
Sep 20	Aaron Rodgers	187	261.8	-29%
Sep 09	Sam Darnold	13	255.0	-95%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYJ offense

NYJ offense: Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.0 yds	2%21.2 yds	6%12.7 yds
Short	37%5.3 yds	10%4.5 yds	40%5.0 yds

Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NE defense

NE defense: Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds#29	4%10.5 yds#31	4%10.0 yds#22
Short	32%5.2 yds#27	17%7.7 yds#12	36%4.4 yds#31

Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.8 yds	3%15.4 yds	6%12.2 yds
Short	31%5.9 yds	16%7.4 yds	37%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYJ targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Garrett Wilson WR	5	8.4	42	30.1%
2	Adonai Mitchell WR	2	7.5	15	23.2%
3	Kenyon Sadiq TE	5	4.2	21	16.1%
4	Mason Taylor TE	2	3.0	6	11.7%
5	Isaiah Williams WR	5	2.8	14	10.7%
6	Breece Hall RB	3	3.3	10	10.3%
7	Tim Patrick WR	1	3.0	3	10.3%
8	Braelon Allen RB	5	2.2	11	8.5%
9	Jeremy Ruckert TE	3	2.7	8	7.9%
10	Sterling Shepard WR	2	1.0	2	4.7%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 219.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CLE	182	Under	198.5	70 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CHI	119	Under	227.5	32 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DET	321	Over	231.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs GB	247	Over	207.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ TEN	215	Under	212.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NYG	176	Under	235.5	53 (90%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	201	Under	179.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	116	Under	180.5	37 (74%)
2025-11-30	13	@ LAC	165	Under	185.5	48 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	285	Over	252.5	79 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 219.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: ESPN BET, updated 17m ago.