NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Geno Smith QB

NYJ vs NE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

219.5 Pass Yds O -110U -120

Hit rate · All 51%19/37 Odds imply 49.0% Over

Season avg: 216.8
Graph avg: 227.8
Graph median: 221.067–395
Over the close: 40%8/20

2026 per game

Pass Yds216.8▲+15.1

Att29.4▼-0.5

Cmp%69.4%▲+2.0

Pass TD1.2▼-0.1

INT0.0▼-1.1

Rush Yds8.6▲+1.3

Snaps61.8▲+4.3

Snap %100.0%▲+3.5

219.5

2024

171

Sep 08
327

Sep 15
289

Sep 22
395

Sep 30
284

Oct 06
312

Oct 10
207

Oct 20
212

Oct 27
363

Nov 03
221

Nov 17
254

Nov 24
206

Dec 01
233

Dec 08
149

Dec 15
314

Dec 22
160

Dec 26
223

Jan 05
2025

362

Sep 07
180

Sep 15
289

Sep 21
117

Sep 28
228

Oct 05
174

Oct 12
67

Oct 19
284

Nov 02
143

Nov 06
238

Nov 17
285

Nov 23
165

Nov 30
116

Dec 07
201

Dec 21
176

Dec 28
2026

215

Sep 13
247

Sep 20
321

Sep 27
119

Oct 04
182

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 219.5

Home 53% 10/19 · avg 228.8
Away 50% 9/18 · avg 226.8
vs NE 100% 2/2 · avg 344.5

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 199.5 65% 24/37
O 209.5 57% 21/37
O 219.5 Today 51% 19/37
O 229.5 43% 16/37
O 239.5 38% 14/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NE

What NE allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds195.6#29
Yds/Att5.9#31
Cmp%59.3%#29
Pass TD1.0#28
Pass Att33.4#10

QBs vs NE · 2026

Each main QB who faced NE this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-78.5

Avg diff %-31%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Kirk Cousins	243	256.5	-5%
Oct 04	Josh Allen	253	249.0	+2%
Sep 27	Trevor Lawrence	182	248.0	-27%
Sep 20	Aaron Rodgers	187	261.8	-29%
Sep 09	Sam Darnold	13	255.0	-95%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NYJ offense

NYJ offense: Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%9.0 yds	2%21.2 yds	6%12.7 yds
Short	37%5.3 yds	10%4.5 yds	40%5.0 yds

Share of NYJ pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NE defense

NE defense: Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%6.6 yds#29	4%10.5 yds#31	4%10.0 yds#22
Short	32%5.2 yds#27	17%7.7 yds#12	36%4.4 yds#31

Throws NE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.8 yds	3%15.4 yds	6%12.2 yds
Short	31%5.9 yds	16%7.4 yds	37%5.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of NYJ targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Garrett Wilson WR	5	8.4	42	30.1%
2	Adonai Mitchell WR	2	7.5	15	23.2%
3	Kenyon Sadiq TE	5	4.2	21	16.1%
4	Mason Taylor TE	2	3.0	6	11.7%
5	Isaiah Williams WR	5	2.8	14	10.7%
6	Breece Hall RB	3	3.3	10	10.3%
7	Tim Patrick WR	1	3.0	3	10.3%
8	Braelon Allen RB	5	2.2	11	8.5%
9	Jeremy Ruckert TE	3	2.7	8	7.9%
10	Sterling Shepard WR	2	1.0	2	4.7%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 219.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CLE	182	Under	198.5	70 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CHI	119	Under	227.5	32 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DET	321	Over	231.5	66 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	vs GB	247	Over	207.5	74 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ TEN	215	Under	212.5	67 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NYG	176	Under	235.5	53 (90%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	201	Under	179.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	116	Under	180.5	37 (74%)
2025-11-30	13	@ LAC	165	Under	185.5	48 (100%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	285	Over	252.5	79 (100%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	238	Over	266.5	60 (100%)
2025-11-06	10	@ DEN	143	Under	175.5	58 (97%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	284	Over	225.5	64 (100%)
2025-10-19	7	@ KC	67	Under	204.5	30 (86%)
2025-10-12	6	vs TEN	174	Under	175.5	61 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	@ IND	228	Over	230.5	68 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CHI	117	Under	120.5	52 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	@ WAS	289	Over	244.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-15	2	vs LAC	180	Under	205.5	70 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NE	362	Over	328.5	63 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ LA	223	Over	—	55 (100%)
2024-12-26	17	@ CHI	160	Under	—	52 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	vs MIN	314	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-15	15	vs GB	149	Under	—	35 (59%)
2024-12-08	14	@ ARI	233	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-12-01	13	@ NYJ	206	Under	—	64 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	vs ARI	254	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-11-17	11	@ SF	221	Over	—	60 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs LA	363	Over	—	80 (100%)
2024-10-27	8	vs BUF	212	Under	—	51 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	@ ATL	207	Under	—	59 (98%)
2024-10-10	6	vs SF	312	Over	—	78 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs NYG	284	Over	—	58 (100%)
2024-09-30	4	@ DET	395	Over	—	90 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs MIA	289	Over	—	64 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	@ NE	327	Over	—	70 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	vs DEN	171	Under	—	67 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 219.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: ESPN BET, updated 16m ago.