NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Elijah Higgins TE

ARI vs LAR · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

11.5 Rec Yds O -115U -115

Hit rate · All 50%18/36 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 24.0
Graph avg: 15.8
Graph median: 11.50–91
Over the close: 50%6/12

2026 per game

Targets2.0▼-0.2

Rec2.0▲+0.2

Rec Yds24.0▲+6.3

Rec TD0.2▲+0.2

Snaps27.8▼-0.2

Snap %38.8%▼-3.8

11.5

2024

12

Sep 08
18

Sep 15
11

Sep 22
12

Sep 29
2

Oct 06
0

Oct 13
1

Oct 21
13

Oct 27
34

Nov 03
13

Nov 10
5

Nov 24
23

Dec 01
5

Dec 15
0

Dec 22
23

Dec 28
2025

3

Sep 07
45

Sep 14
7

Sep 21
0

Sep 25
10

Oct 05
34

Oct 12
3

Oct 19
30

Nov 03
19

Nov 09
11

Nov 16
0

Nov 23
17

Nov 30
0

Dec 07
3

Dec 14
91

Dec 21
0

Dec 28
28

Jan 04
2026

0

Sep 20
20

Sep 27
19

Oct 04
57

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 11.5

Home 41% 7/17 · avg 18.3
Away 58% 11/19 · avg 13.6
vs LAR 75% 3/4 · avg 17.2

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 78% 28/36
O 6.5 61% 22/36
O 11.5 Today 50% 18/36
O 16.5 39% 14/36
O 21.5 25% 9/36

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds34.9#30
Receptions4.1#29
Targets7.2#19
Yds/Target4.8#32
Rec TD0.3#20

TEs vs LAR · 2026

Each main TE who faced LAR this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-32.1

Avg diff %-26%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Dalton Kincaid	7	67.5	-90%
Oct 04	Zach Ertz	13	4.5	+189%
Sep 27	Evan Engram	0	26.8	-100%
Sep 21	Isaiah Likely	33	62.8	-47%
Sep 10	George Kittle	12	64.0	-81%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	2%13.8 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	35%5.3 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	5%15.4 yds#15	7%5.0 yds#31
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	18%4.8 yds#31	31%6.3 yds#4

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	7%19.0 yds
Short	43%9.8 yds	29%6.9 yds	21%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	5	11.2	56	30.3%
2	Michael Wilson WR	5	10.2	51	26.4%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	4	5.5	22	14.1%
4	Reggie Virgil WR	1	5.0	5	10.9%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Jeremiyah Love RB	5	2.8	14	7.5%
7	Tyler Allgeier RB	5	2.4	12	6.2%
8	Elijah Higgins TE	4	2.0	8	4.6%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	4	2.0	8	4.3%
10	Teagan Quitoriano TE	1	2.0	2	4.3%

Game log · 36 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 11.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DET	57	Over	9.5	39 (53%)
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	19	Over	4.5	24 (36%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	20	Over	—	35 (40%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	0	Under	—	13 (26%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LA	28	Over	28.5	33 (60%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CIN	0	Under	21.5	34 (60%)
2025-12-21	16	vs ATL	91	Over	38.5	36 (63%)
2025-12-14	15	@ HOU	3	Under	13.5	46 (70%)
2025-12-07	14	vs LA	0	Under	10.5	41 (66%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TB	17	Over	8.5	25 (41%)
2025-11-23	12	vs JAX	0	Under	15.5	31 (37%)
2025-11-16	11	vs SF	11	Under	11.5	28 (35%)
2025-11-09	10	@ SEA	19	Over	10.5	28 (37%)
2025-11-03	9	@ DAL	30	Over	—	27 (40%)
2025-10-19	7	vs GB	3	Under	—	32 (42%)
2025-10-12	6	@ IND	34	Over	13.5	33 (45%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TEN	10	Under	—	20 (29%)
2025-09-25	4	vs SEA	0	Under	—	9 (13%)
2025-09-21	3	@ SF	7	Under	—	10 (15%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CAR	45	Over	—	22 (40%)
2025-09-07	1	@ NO	3	Under	—	20 (30%)
2024-12-28	17	@ LA	23	Over	—	22 (28%)
2024-12-22	16	@ CAR	0	Under	—	19 (27%)
2024-12-15	15	vs NE	5	Under	—	24 (34%)
2024-12-01	13	@ MIN	23	Over	—	25 (30%)
2024-11-24	12	@ SEA	5	Under	—	18 (31%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NYJ	13	Over	—	29 (49%)
2024-11-03	9	vs CHI	34	Over	—	25 (43%)
2024-10-27	8	@ MIA	13	Over	—	19 (29%)
2024-10-21	7	vs LAC	1	Under	—	21 (37%)
2024-10-13	6	@ GB	0	Under	—	18 (31%)
2024-10-06	5	@ SF	2	Under	—	24 (41%)
2024-09-29	4	vs WAS	12	Over	—	40 (68%)
2024-09-22	3	vs DET	11	Under	—	19 (32%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LA	18	Over	—	36 (55%)
2024-09-08	1	@ BUF	12	Over	—	25 (41%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 4.5PrizePicks 11.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 11m ago.