NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Christian Watson WR

GB vs DAL · Sun Oct 18 · 8:20 PM ET

74.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 20 40%8/20 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 94.8
Graph avg: 64.5
Graph median: 52.50–147
Over the close: 38%3/8

2026 per game

Targets8.0▲+2.4

Rec5.2▲+1.7

Rec Yds94.8▲+36.0

Rec TD1.2▲+0.6

Snaps49.6▲+6.4

Snap %78.8%▲+10.0

74.5

2024

114

Dec 05
56

Dec 15
0

Dec 23
0

Jan 05
2025

85

Oct 26
58

Nov 02
45

Nov 10
46

Nov 16
49

Nov 23
80

Nov 27
89

Dec 07
29

Dec 14
17

Dec 20
113

Dec 27
36

Jan 10
2026

147

Sep 13
41

Sep 20
96

Sep 24
47

Oct 04
143

Oct 11
?

Oct 19

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 74.5

Home 27% 4/15 · avg 51.6
Away 33% 5/15 · avg 64.5
vs DAL No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 54.5 50% 10/20
O 64.5 40% 8/20
O 74.5 Today 40% 8/20
O 84.5 35% 7/20
O 94.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs DAL

What DAL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds170.3#5
Receptions11.9#12
Targets17.6#15
Yds/Target9.7#3
Rec TD1.0#10

WRs vs DAL · 2026

Each main WR who faced DAL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+2.2

Avg diff %+4%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Emeka Egbuka	38	38.5	-1%
Oct 08	Chris Godwin Jr.	37	35.5	+4%
Oct 04	Nico Collins	118	65.5	+80%
Oct 04	Xavier Hutchinson	46	46.2	-1%
Sep 27	Zay Flowers	84	107.0	-21%
Sep 27	Rashod Bateman	37	49.0	-24%
Sep 20	Terry McLaurin	50	51.0	-2%
Sep 20	Stefon Diggs	47	41.0	+15%
Sep 13	Malik Nabers	69	65.0	+6%
Sep 13	Malachi Fields	25	30.2	-17%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

GB offense

GB offense: Share of GB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%12.4 yds	5%19.9 yds	10%15.4 yds
Short	27%5.8 yds	16%6.1 yds	35%4.8 yds

Share of GB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

DAL defense

DAL defense: Throws DAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.5 yds#9	2%24.3 yds#1	9%10.6 yds#19
Short	27%7.4 yds#2	16%10.1 yds#1	37%6.7 yds#3

Throws DAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%20.2 yds	15%26.9 yds	3%0.0 yds
Short	19%6.9 yds	18%8.2 yds	34%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of GB targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Matthew Golden WR	5	8.8	44	24.0%
2	Christian Watson WR	5	8.0	40	22.7%
3	Tucker Kraft TE	5	5.8	29	16.1%
4	Pierre Strong RB	1	4.0	4	12.9%
5	Jayden Reed WR	2	4.0	8	10.5%
6	MarShawn Lloyd RB	5	2.6	13	7.7%
7	Skyy Moore WR	5	2.8	14	7.3%
8	Mark Redman TE	1	2.0	2	6.7%
9	Jonnu Smith TE	3	2.3	7	5.6%
10	Bo Melton WR	5	1.6	8	4.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 74.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CHI	143	Over	60.5	49 (80%)
2026-10-04	4	@ TB	47	Under	67.5	41 (68%)
2026-09-24	3	vs ATL	96	Over	71.5	53 (80%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NYJ	41	Under	61.5	53 (90%)
2026-09-13	1	@ MIN	147	Over	56.5	52 (76%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	@ CHI	36	Under	36.5	57 (80%)
2025-12-27	17	vs BAL	113	Over	116.5	29 (62%)
2025-12-20	16	@ CHI	17	Under	17.5	45 (62%)
2025-12-14	15	@ DEN	29	Under	—	27 (41%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CHI	89	Over	—	44 (83%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DET	80	Over	—	46 (73%)
2025-11-23	12	vs MIN	49	Under	—	49 (74%)
2025-11-16	11	@ NYG	46	Under	—	43 (78%)
2025-11-10	10	vs PHI	45	Under	—	56 (82%)
2025-11-02	9	vs CAR	58	Under	—	43 (66%)
2025-10-26	8	@ PIT	85	Over	—	36 (56%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CHI	0	Under	—	10 (15%)
2024-12-23	16	vs NO	0	Under	—	30 (43%)
2024-12-15	15	@ SEA	56	Under	—	50 (78%)
2024-12-05	14	@ DET	114	Over	—	46 (92%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 69.5PrizePicks 74.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.