NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Jerry Jeudy WR

CLE vs BAL · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

16.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 80%16/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 20.2
Graph avg: 30.9
Graph median: 24.00–78
Over the close: 37%7/19

2026 per game

Targets3.8▼-2.5

Rec2.0▼-0.9

Rec Yds20.2▼-15.2

Rec TD0.0▼-0.1

Snaps36.2▼-17.9

Snap %60.2%▼-24.3

16.5

2025

51

Sep 14
17

Sep 21
48

Sep 28
15

Oct 05
43

Oct 12
17

Oct 19
0

Oct 26
78

Nov 09
21

Nov 16
39

Nov 23
26

Nov 30
76

Dec 07
22

Dec 14
12

Dec 21
54

Dec 28
17

Jan 04
2026

26

Sep 13
0

Sep 20
36

Oct 01
19

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 16.5

Home 89% 16/18 · avg 47.2
Away 85% 17/20 · avg 53.1
vs BAL 100% 4/4 · avg 53.5

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 6.5 90% 18/20
O 11.5 90% 18/20
O 16.5 Today 80% 16/20
O 21.5 55% 11/20
O 26.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds195.0#1
Receptions13.9#1
Targets20.9#4
Yds/Target9.3#4
Rec TD0.5#28

WRs vs BAL · 2026

Each main WR who faced BAL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+11.0

Avg diff %+37%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Drake London	118	92.5	+28%
Oct 11	Jahan Dotson	54	23.8	+127%
Oct 04	Wan'Dale Robinson	19	39.2	-52%
Oct 04	Carnell Tate	145	32.2	+350%
Sep 27	CeeDee Lamb	112	98.8	+13%
Sep 27	George Pickens	82	68.2	+20%
Sep 20	Chris Olave	86	112.8	-24%
Sep 20	Devaughn Vele	64	47.0	+36%
Sep 13	Josh Downs	37	53.0	-30%
Sep 13	Laquon Treadwell	0	39.2	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CLE offense

CLE offense: Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%10.9 yds	6%13.1 yds	5%10.6 yds
Short	34%5.3 yds	18%7.6 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of CLE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%16.0 yds#3	5%14.3 yds#19	7%17.7 yds#3
Short	31%5.8 yds#16	16%5.8 yds#27	35%5.2 yds#21

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%0.0 yds	11%15.4 yds	7%0.0 yds
Short	42%5.7 yds	13%6.3 yds	20%7.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CLE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	KC Concepcion WR	5	5.8	29	20.0%
2	Denzel Boston WR	5	5.8	29	19.6%
3	Harold Fannin Jr. TE	5	5.4	27	18.3%
4	Quinshon Judkins RB	5	4.0	20	13.2%
5	Jerry Jeudy WR	4	3.8	15	13.1%
6	Isaiah Bond WR	3	3.0	9	9.4%
7	Raheim Sanders RB	5	2.4	12	8.6%
8	Blake Whiteheart TE	3	1.0	3	3.7%
9	Jaleel McLaughlin RB	3	0.7	2	2.2%
10	Michael Burton FB	2	0.5	1	1.7%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 16.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NYJ	19	Over	12.5	55 (81%)
2026-10-01	4	vs PIT	36	Over	14.5	24 (38%)
2026-09-20	2	@ TB	0	Under	29.5	34 (59%)
2026-09-13	1	@ JAX	26	Over	29.5	32 (63%)
2026-01-04	18	@ CIN	17	Over	6.5	46 (88%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PIT	54	Over	29.5	49 (94%)
2025-12-21	16	vs BUF	12	Under	12.5	48 (73%)
2025-12-14	15	@ CHI	22	Over	37.5	55 (96%)
2025-12-07	14	vs TEN	76	Over	76.5	61 (88%)
2025-11-30	13	vs SF	26	Over	15.5	53 (84%)
2025-11-23	12	@ LV	39	Over	40.5	33 (65%)
2025-11-16	11	vs BAL	21	Over	11.5	45 (82%)
2025-11-09	10	@ NYJ	78	Over	39.5	70 (96%)
2025-10-26	8	@ NE	0	Under	45.5	45 (83%)
2025-10-19	7	vs MIA	17	Over	20.5	39 (68%)
2025-10-12	6	@ PIT	43	Over	43.5	73 (89%)
2025-10-05	5	vs MIN	15	Under	15.5	63 (90%)
2025-09-28	4	@ DET	48	Over	55.5	55 (82%)
2025-09-21	3	vs GB	17	Over	—	55 (83%)
2025-09-14	2	@ BAL	51	Over	51.5	64 (88%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 16.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 14m ago.