NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Tre Tucker WR

LV vs BUF · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

38.5 Rec Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 54.8
Graph avg: 45.2
Graph median: 39.50–145
Over the close: 45%9/20

2026 per game

Targets5.6▲+0.2

Rec3.8▲+0.4

Rec Yds54.8▲+13.9

Rec TD0.2▼-0.1

Snaps45.2▼-10.2

Snap %65.8%▼-29.0

38.5

2025

145

Sep 21
13

Sep 28
62

Oct 05
70

Oct 12
33

Oct 19
38

Nov 02
28

Nov 06
47

Nov 17
28

Nov 23
20

Nov 30
24

Dec 07
0

Dec 14
43

Dec 21
49

Dec 28
30

Jan 04
2026

27

Sep 13
119

Sep 20
43

Sep 27
44

Oct 04
41

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 38.5

Home 42% 8/19 · avg 37.4
Away 40% 8/20 · avg 40.0
vs BUF No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 28.5 65% 13/20
O 33.5 55% 11/20
O 38.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 43.5 35% 7/20
O 48.5 25% 5/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs BUF

What BUF allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds149.1#12
Receptions12.6#6
Targets20.0#7
Yds/Target7.5#25
Rec TD1.3#4

WRs vs BUF · 2026

Each main WR who faced BUF this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+10.3

Avg diff %+26%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Puka Nacua	138	99.5	+39%
Oct 12	Davante Adams	51	97.5	-48%
Oct 04	Mack Hollins	53	52.0	+2%
Oct 04	Romeo Doubs	58	40.2	+44%
Sep 27	Ladd McConkey	66	39.0	+69%
Sep 27	Tre Harris	76	37.2	+104%
Sep 17	Jameson Williams	33	60.8	-46%
Sep 17	Amon-Ra St. Brown	142	57.5	+147%
Sep 13	Nico Collins	75	87.0	-14%
Sep 13	Xavier Hutchinson	32	49.8	-36%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LV offense

LV offense: Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%14.5 yds	3%5.3 yds	5%7.0 yds
Short	30%5.6 yds	19%7.0 yds	35%5.8 yds

Share of LV pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BUF defense

BUF defense: Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%11.5 yds#14	4%8.1 yds#32	9%9.2 yds#25
Short	30%5.5 yds#22	16%6.5 yds#20	35%5.4 yds#16

Throws BUF faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	15%12.9 yds	8%5.8 yds	9%5.2 yds
Short	30%6.1 yds	8%7.0 yds	30%8.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LV targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Brock Bowers TE	3	11.3	34	31.3%
2	Ashton Jeanty RB	5	6.0	30	17.6%
3	Tre Tucker WR	5	5.6	28	16.4%
4	Michael Mayer TE	5	5.0	25	14.3%
5	Jalen Nailor WR	3	3.7	11	12.5%
6	Jack Bech WR	2	3.0	6	10.3%
7	Cody White WR	5	2.8	14	8.0%
8	Malik Benson WR	5	1.6	8	5.0%
9	Ian Thomas TE	3	1.3	4	3.5%
10	Deven Thompkins WR	1	1.0	1	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 38.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NE	41	Over	41.5	45 (75%)
2026-10-04	4	vs KC	44	Over	38.5	56 (67%)
2026-09-27	3	@ NO	43	Over	39.5	40 (57%)
2026-09-20	2	@ LAC	119	Over	36.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-13	1	vs MIA	27	Under	45.5	48 (71%)
2026-01-04	18	vs KC	30	Under	30.5	61 (98%)
2025-12-28	17	vs NYG	49	Over	49.5	59 (100%)
2025-12-21	16	@ HOU	43	Over	27.5	54 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	@ PHI	0	Under	10.5	39 (93%)
2025-12-07	14	vs DEN	24	Under	24.5	47 (94%)
2025-11-30	13	@ LAC	20	Under	20.5	46 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	vs CLE	28	Under	28.5	75 (95%)
2025-11-17	11	vs DAL	47	Over	47.5	58 (97%)
2025-11-06	10	@ DEN	28	Under	28.5	60 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	vs JAX	38	Under	10.5	62 (97%)
2025-10-19	7	@ KC	33	Under	25.5	31 (89%)
2025-10-12	6	vs TEN	70	Over	70.5	56 (92%)
2025-10-05	5	@ IND	62	Over	51.5	60 (88%)
2025-09-28	4	vs CHI	13	Under	9.5	51 (98%)
2025-09-21	3	@ WAS	145	Over	27.5	62 (94%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 38.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 13m ago.