NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Chase Brown RB

CIN vs BAL · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

22.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · All 42%16/38 Odds imply —

Season avg: 24.8
Graph avg: 24.2
Graph median: 19.5-8–75
Over the close: 33%7/21

2026 per game

Carries14.2▲+0.6

Rush Yds49.2▼-10.7

Rush TD0.2▼-0.2

Targets5.6▲+0.4

Rec4.8▲+0.7

Rec Yds24.8▼-0.9

Snaps45.4▲+2.0

Snap %70.2%▲+3.6

22.5

2024

12

Sep 08
0

Sep 15
7

Sep 23
12

Sep 29
8

Oct 06
11

Oct 13
9

Oct 20
2

Oct 27
37

Nov 03
52

Nov 07
57

Nov 17
30

Dec 01
65

Dec 09
16

Dec 15
18

Dec 22
24

Dec 28
2025

8

Sep 07
18

Sep 14
17

Sep 21
31

Sep 29
21

Oct 05
7

Oct 12
-8

Oct 16
32

Oct 26
75

Nov 02
28

Nov 16
23

Nov 23
35

Nov 27
12

Dec 07
37

Dec 14
43

Dec 21
40

Dec 28
18

Jan 04
2026

22

Sep 13
2

Sep 20
8

Sep 27
71

Oct 04
21

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 22.5

Home 47% 9/19 · avg 25.6
Away 37% 7/19 · avg 22.8
vs BAL 75% 3/4 · avg 33.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 12.5 63% 24/38
O 17.5 58% 22/38
O 22.5 Today 42% 16/38
O 27.5 37% 14/38
O 32.5 26% 10/38

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs BAL

What BAL allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds72.7#28
Yds/Carry3.7#27
Rush TD0.8#9
Targets6.6#5
Rec Yds27.6#23

RBs vs BAL · 2026

Each main RB who faced BAL this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-8.5

Avg diff %-46%

Beat their average20% (1/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Bijan Robinson	32	22.4	+43%
Oct 04	Tyjae Spears	-1	15.2	-107%
Sep 27	Javonte Williams	5	19.6	-74%
Sep 20	Travis Etienne	6	22.5	-73%
Sep 13	Jonathan Taylor	23	28.0	-18%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

CIN offense

CIN offense: Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%14.4 yds	3%15.0 yds	7%11.0 yds
Short	32%6.1 yds	19%8.2 yds	34%6.0 yds

Share of CIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

BAL defense

BAL defense: Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%12.5 yds#9	5%16.1 yds#14	6%15.7 yds#3
Short	31%5.6 yds#17	18%6.3 yds#23	34%5.3 yds#20

Throws BAL faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	0%	0%	2%0.0 yds
Short	48%3.8 yds	14%9.6 yds	36%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of CIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tee Higgins WR	5	8.6	43	22.4%
2	Ja'Marr Chase WR	5	7.6	38	22.2%
3	Chase Brown RB	5	5.6	28	14.6%
4	Mitchell Tinsley WR	1	7.0	7	13.2%
5	Mike Gesicki TE	4	4.2	17	11.1%
6	Erick All TE	2	3.0	6	9.7%
7	Dohnte Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	8.6%
8	Andrei Iosivas WR	2	2.0	4	6.0%
9	Drew Sample TE	3	2.0	6	5.8%
10	Samaje Perine RB	5	2.0	10	5.7%

Game log · 38 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 22.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ MIA	21	Under	21.5	39 (60%)
2026-10-04	4	vs JAX	71	Over	19.5	60 (79%)
2026-09-27	3	@ PIT	8	Under	21.5	40 (70%)
2026-09-20	2	@ HOU	2	Under	19.5	42 (70%)
2026-09-13	1	vs TB	22	Under	23.5	46 (72%)
2026-01-04	18	vs CLE	18	Under	19.5	38 (56%)
2025-12-28	17	vs ARI	40	Over	40.5	47 (61%)
2025-12-21	16	@ MIA	43	Over	21.5	37 (61%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BAL	37	Over	22.5	47 (62%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BUF	12	Under	15.5	40 (67%)
2025-11-27	13	@ BAL	35	Over	35.5	50 (60%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NE	23	Over	32.5	58 (89%)
2025-11-16	11	@ PIT	28	Over	30.5	54 (82%)
2025-11-02	9	vs CHI	75	Over	14.5	65 (96%)
2025-10-26	8	vs NYJ	32	Over	30.5	32 (54%)
2025-10-16	7	vs PIT	-8	Under	10.5	48 (63%)
2025-10-12	6	@ GB	7	Under	—	35 (54%)
2025-10-05	5	vs DET	21	Under	21.5	33 (53%)
2025-09-29	4	@ DEN	31	Over	31.5	35 (73%)
2025-09-21	3	@ MIN	17	Under	15.5	31 (55%)
2025-09-14	2	vs JAX	18	Under	10.5	49 (71%)
2025-09-07	1	@ CLE	8	Under	10.5	39 (75%)
2024-12-28	17	vs DEN	24	Over	—	73 (81%)
2024-12-22	16	vs CLE	18	Under	—	55 (98%)
2024-12-15	15	@ TEN	16	Under	—	64 (93%)
2024-12-09	14	@ DAL	65	Over	—	59 (83%)
2024-12-01	13	vs PIT	30	Over	—	50 (81%)
2024-11-17	11	@ LAC	57	Over	—	68 (83%)
2024-11-07	10	@ BAL	52	Over	—	71 (87%)
2024-11-03	9	vs LV	37	Over	—	59 (80%)
2024-10-27	8	vs PHI	2	Under	—	28 (48%)
2024-10-20	7	@ CLE	9	Under	—	32 (58%)
2024-10-13	6	@ NYG	11	Under	—	33 (62%)
2024-10-06	5	vs BAL	8	Under	—	22 (33%)
2024-09-29	4	@ CAR	12	Under	—	27 (40%)
2024-09-23	3	vs WAS	7	Under	—	15 (24%)
2024-09-15	2	@ KC	0	Under	—	13 (20%)
2024-09-08	1	vs NE	12	Under	—	17 (33%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 22.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 12m ago.