NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Brian Thomas Jr. WR

JAX vs HOU · Sun Oct 18 · 9:30 AM ET

17.5 Rec Yds O -112U -111

Hit rate · Last 20 80%16/20 Odds imply 50.1% Over

Season avg: 21.0
Graph avg: 41.6
Graph median: 40.00–90
Over the close: 30%6/20

2026 per game

Targets3.4▼-2.8

Rec1.8▼-1.5

Rec Yds21.0▼-27.5

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps30.0▼-22.3

Snap %47.8%▼-29.8

17.5

2025

11

Sep 07
49

Sep 14
55

Sep 21
49

Sep 28
80

Oct 06
90

Oct 12
31

Oct 19
55

Nov 02
28

Nov 30
87

Dec 07
66

Dec 14
18

Dec 21
39

Dec 28
49

Jan 04
21

Jan 11
2026

40

Sep 13
40

Sep 20
8

Sep 27
17

Oct 04
0

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 17.5

Home 80% 16/20 · avg 59.4
Away 94% 16/17 · avg 54.6
vs HOU 100% 3/3 · avg 72.3

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 7.5 95% 19/20
O 12.5 85% 17/20
O 17.5 Today 80% 16/20
O 22.5 70% 14/20
O 27.5 70% 14/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs HOU

What HOU allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds167.2#8
Receptions11.8#13
Targets18.9#9
Yds/Target8.8#9
Rec TD1.1#8

WRs vs HOU · 2026

Each main WR who faced HOU this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+7.4

Avg diff %+12%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Carnell Tate	6	67.0	-91%
Oct 11	Wan'Dale Robinson	53	30.8	+72%
Oct 04	CeeDee Lamb	189	79.5	+138%
Oct 04	George Pickens	75	70.0	+7%
Sep 27	Josh Downs	77	43.0	+79%
Sep 27	Laquon Treadwell	20	34.2	-42%
Sep 20	Tee Higgins	95	82.0	+16%
Sep 20	Ja'Marr Chase	75	53.5	+40%
Sep 13	Keon Coleman	1	55.8	-98%
Sep 13	Khalil Shakir	50	51.5	-3%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

JAX offense

JAX offense: Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.4 yds	4%18.1 yds	7%11.5 yds
Short	34%6.8 yds	16%6.6 yds	28%7.9 yds

Share of JAX pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

HOU defense

HOU defense: Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%12.6 yds#11	3%22.5 yds#2	7%13.0 yds#7
Short	28%5.1 yds#28	19%6.9 yds#17	33%4.5 yds#29

Throws HOU faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	17%3.1 yds	0%	20%13.0 yds
Short	37%7.5 yds	2%0.0 yds	24%5.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of JAX targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Parker Washington WR	5	7.0	35	25.3%
2	Brenton Strange TE	5	5.2	26	19.2%
3	Jakobi Meyers WR	5	3.6	18	13.6%
4	Brian Thomas Jr. WR	5	3.4	17	12.6%
5	Josh Cameron WR	5	2.4	12	8.3%
6	Bhayshul Tuten RB	5	2.0	10	7.2%
7	Nate Boerkircher TE	4	1.5	6	5.6%
8	LeQuint Allen Jr. RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Ameer Abdullah RB	5	0.6	3	2.4%
10	Quintin Morris TE	4	0.5	2	2.1%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 17.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs PHI	0	Under	24.5	37 (51%)
2026-10-04	4	@ CIN	17	Under	27.5	38 (62%)
2026-09-27	3	vs NE	8	Under	34.5	23 (37%)
2026-09-20	2	@ DEN	40	Over	34.5	32 (54%)
2026-09-13	1	vs CLE	40	Over	38.5	20 (35%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs BUF	21	Over	21.5	43 (77%)
2026-01-04	18	vs TEN	49	Over	52.5	35 (57%)
2025-12-28	17	@ IND	39	Over	39.5	54 (78%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DEN	18	Over	18.5	51 (73%)
2025-12-14	15	vs NYJ	66	Over	66.5	48 (77%)
2025-12-07	14	vs IND	87	Over	45.5	53 (83%)
2025-11-30	13	@ TEN	28	Over	30.5	47 (75%)
2025-11-02	9	@ LV	55	Over	35.5	52 (65%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LA	31	Over	62.5	51 (66%)
2025-10-12	6	vs SEA	90	Over	97.5	61 (80%)
2025-10-06	5	vs KC	80	Over	50.5	54 (93%)
2025-09-28	4	@ SF	49	Over	49.5	54 (79%)
2025-09-21	3	vs HOU	55	Over	15.5	57 (81%)
2025-09-14	2	@ CIN	49	Over	50.5	67 (94%)
2025-09-07	1	vs CAR	11	Under	15.5	57 (86%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 17.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.