NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

DeMario Douglas WR

NE vs CHI · Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET

30.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · All 52%22/42 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 38.8
Graph avg: 33.0
Graph median: 33.0-2–100
Over the close: 48%12/25

2026 per game

Targets5.0▲+2.1

Rec3.3▲+1.4

Rec Yds38.8▲+12.3

Rec TD0.5▲+0.3

Snaps36.5▲+18.6

Snap %53.7%▲+26.5

30.5

2024

13

Sep 29
59

Oct 06
92

Oct 13
14

Oct 20
12

Oct 27
35

Nov 03
50

Nov 10
59

Nov 17
62

Nov 24
20

Dec 01
11

Dec 15
33

Dec 22
46

Dec 28
34

Jan 05
2025

-2

Sep 07
8

Sep 14
7

Sep 21
17

Oct 05
71

Oct 12
17

Oct 19
44

Oct 26
100

Nov 02
34

Nov 09
36

Nov 13
37

Nov 23
33

Dec 01
0

Dec 14
6

Dec 21
10

Dec 28
29

Jan 04
3

Jan 11
36

Jan 18
0

Jan 25
45

Feb 08
2026

20

Sep 09
9

Sep 20
38

Sep 27
15

Oct 04
65

Oct 11
86

Oct 18
?

Oct 23

Showing the latest 40 of 42 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 30.5

Home 62% 13/21 · avg 38.7
Away 43% 9/21 · avg 27.2
vs CHI 100% 1/1 · avg 50.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 20.5 55% 23/42
O 25.5 55% 23/42
O 30.5 Today 52% 22/42
O 35.5 40% 17/42
O 40.5 31% 13/42

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds183.7#2
Receptions12.0#10
Targets19.1#12
Yds/Target9.6#1
Rec TD1.1#5

WRs vs CHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced CHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+9.9

Avg diff %+48%

Beat their average42% (5/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Drake London	62	97.6	-36%
Oct 18	Jahan Dotson	87	29.8	+192%
Oct 11	Christian Watson	143	79.0	+81%
Oct 11	Matthew Golden	123	75.6	+63%
Oct 04	Garrett Wilson	27	78.2	-65%
Oct 04	Isaiah Williams	73	15.6	+368%
Sep 28	DeVonta Smith	65	81.7	-20%
Sep 28	Dontayvion Wicks	32	50.4	-37%
Sep 20	Justin Jefferson	55	67.7	-19%
Sep 20	Jordan Addison	21	47.3	-56%
Sep 13	Tetairoa McMillan	75	99.0	-24%
Sep 13	Jalen Coker	138	60.3	+129%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	3%10.5 yds	10%14.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	16%7.2 yds	29%5.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.1 yds#8	4%21.1 yds#1	9%12.8 yds#10
Short	29%4.5 yds#32	19%8.5 yds#5	31%6.5 yds#4

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	19%4.8 yds	2%0.0 yds	10%18.5 yds
Short	24%5.2 yds	17%9.3 yds	29%7.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	2	7.0	14	23.1%
2	DeMario Douglas WR	6	5.0	30	16.7%
3	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
4	Hunter Henry TE	6	4.0	24	13.9%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	6	3.2	19	10.4%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	5	2.8	14	9.0%
9	Eli Raridon TE	5	2.4	12	7.9%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 42 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 30.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	86	Over	21.5	40 (59%)
2026-10-11	5	vs LV	65	Over	25.5	37 (49%)
2026-10-04	4	@ BUF	15	Under	29.5	35 (46%)
2026-09-27	3	@ JAX	38	Over	28.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-20	2	vs PIT	9	Under	34.5	26 (47%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	20	Under	21.5	44 (62%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	vs SEA	45	Over	10.5	29 (41%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	@ DEN	0	Under	12.5	12 (19%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs HOU	36	Over	18.5	17 (26%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs LAC	3	Under	3.5	21 (33%)
2026-01-04	18	vs MIA	29	Under	9.5	15 (25%)
2025-12-28	17	@ NYJ	10	Under	17.5	9 (14%)
2025-12-21	16	@ BAL	6	Under	10.5	13 (18%)
2025-12-14	15	vs BUF	0	Under	0.5	10 (19%)
2025-12-01	13	vs NYG	33	Over	33.5	22 (34%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CIN	37	Over	20.5	12 (17%)
2025-11-13	11	vs NYJ	36	Over	10.5	19 (28%)
2025-11-09	10	@ TB	34	Over	35.5	13 (21%)
2025-11-02	9	vs ATL	100	Over	90.5	16 (24%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CLE	44	Over	19.5	14 (21%)
2025-10-19	7	@ TEN	17	Under	16.5	15 (23%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NO	71	Over	71.5	16 (25%)
2025-10-05	5	@ BUF	17	Under	10.5	17 (28%)
2025-09-21	3	vs PIT	7	Under	—	29 (39%)
2025-09-14	2	@ MIA	8	Under	30.5	15 (25%)
2025-09-07	1	vs LV	-2	Under	10.5	45 (63%)
2025-01-05	18	vs BUF	34	Over	—	48 (75%)
2024-12-28	17	vs LAC	46	Over	—	49 (92%)
2024-12-22	16	@ BUF	33	Over	—	43 (59%)
2024-12-15	15	@ ARI	11	Under	—	31 (61%)
2024-12-01	13	vs IND	20	Under	—	45 (63%)
2024-11-24	12	@ MIA	62	Over	—	47 (68%)
2024-11-17	11	vs LA	59	Over	—	43 (57%)
2024-11-10	10	@ CHI	50	Over	—	27 (42%)
2024-11-03	9	@ TEN	35	Over	—	49 (71%)
2024-10-27	8	vs NYJ	12	Under	—	38 (57%)
2024-10-20	7	@ JAX	14	Under	—	20 (33%)
2024-10-13	6	vs HOU	92	Over	—	41 (62%)
2024-10-06	5	vs MIA	59	Over	—	40 (67%)
2024-09-29	4	@ SF	13	Under	—	38 (59%)
2024-09-19	3	@ NYJ	69	Over	—	43 (83%)
2024-09-08	1	@ CIN	12	Under	—	39 (60%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 30.5Underdog 39.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 10m ago.