NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Evan Engram TE

DEN vs ARI · Sun Oct 25 · 4:05 PM ET

22.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · All 58%19/33 Odds imply —

Season avg: 22.3
Graph avg: 29.9
Graph median: 33.00–102
Over the close: 44%10/23

2026 per game

Targets3.2▼-1.4

Rec2.0▼-0.9

Rec Yds22.3▼-4.7

Rec TD0.2▲+0.1

Snaps34.8▲+6.4

Snap %57.0%▲+15.1

22.5

2024

5

Sep 08
102

Oct 13
35

Oct 20
36

Oct 27
45

Nov 03
40

Nov 10
28

Nov 17
41

Dec 01
33

Dec 08
2025

21

Sep 07
12

Sep 14
29

Sep 29
33

Oct 05
42

Oct 12
42

Oct 19
36

Oct 26
0

Nov 02
12

Nov 06
33

Nov 16
79

Nov 30
8

Dec 07
12

Dec 14
36

Dec 21
21

Dec 25
45

Jan 04
7

Jan 17
19

Jan 25
2026

43

Sep 14
17

Sep 20
0

Sep 27
6

Oct 04
55

Oct 11
13

Oct 15
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 22.5

Home 56% 10/18 · avg 26.3
Away 60% 9/15 · avg 34.1
vs ARI No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 12.5 73% 24/33
O 17.5 67% 22/33
O 22.5 Today 58% 19/33
O 27.5 58% 19/33
O 32.5 52% 17/33

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs ARI

What ARI allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds78.7#2
Receptions7.2#2
Targets8.9#3
Yds/Target8.8#2
Rec TD1.0#3

TEs vs ARI · 2026

Each main TE who faced ARI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-1.5

Avg diff %-16%

Beat their average50% (3/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Tyler Higbee	22	56.0	-61%
Oct 11	Sam LaPorta	88	57.0	+54%
Oct 04	Isaiah Likely	66	63.4	+4%
Sep 27	George Kittle	82	46.5	+76%
Sep 20	AJ Barner	8	26.0	-69%
Sep 13	Charlie Kolar	0	26.0	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

DEN offense

DEN offense: Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.5 yds	2%9.8 yds	5%8.0 yds
Short	36%5.3 yds	10%3.8 yds	40%4.2 yds

Share of DEN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

ARI defense

ARI defense: Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%12.4 yds#10	3%14.2 yds#18	10%10.3 yds#19
Short	30%6.3 yds#8	19%9.0 yds#2	32%7.3 yds#2

Throws ARI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%26.8 yds	0%	0%
Short	36%4.4 yds	21%3.1 yds	30%4.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of DEN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaylen Waddle WR	6	6.3	38	22.6%
2	RJ Harvey RB	5	5.2	26	17.0%
3	Courtland Sutton WR	6	4.7	28	16.1%
4	Evan Engram TE	6	3.2	19	11.3%
5	Pat Bryant WR	4	3.0	12	10.0%
6	Marvin Mims Jr. WR	4	2.2	9	8.4%
7	Adam Trautman TE	2	2.0	4	6.9%
8	Lil'Jordan Humphrey WR	2	1.5	3	6.3%
9	J.K. Dobbins RB	6	1.5	9	5.6%
10	Nate Adkins TE	3	1.7	5	5.6%

Game log · 33 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 22.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	vs SEA	13	Under	21.5	31 (52%)
2026-10-11	5	@ LAC	55	Over	18.5	30 (48%)
2026-10-04	4	@ SF	6	Under	17.5	44 (67%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LA	0	Under	21.5	40 (60%)
2026-09-20	2	vs JAX	17	Under	24.5	32 (52%)
2026-09-14	1	@ KC	43	Over	23.5	32 (63%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs NE	19	Under	20.5	19 (33%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs BUF	7	Under	21.5	34 (47%)
2026-01-04	18	vs LAC	45	Over	45.5	23 (39%)
2025-12-25	17	@ KC	21	Under	18.5	22 (31%)
2025-12-21	16	vs JAX	36	Over	25.5	29 (44%)
2025-12-14	15	vs GB	12	Under	—	19 (28%)
2025-12-07	14	@ LV	8	Under	8.5	27 (36%)
2025-11-30	13	@ WAS	79	Over	22.5	38 (54%)
2025-11-16	11	vs KC	33	Over	33.5	25 (40%)
2025-11-06	10	vs LV	12	Under	10.5	27 (44%)
2025-11-02	9	@ HOU	0	Under	29.5	32 (51%)
2025-10-26	8	vs DAL	36	Over	40.5	27 (43%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NYG	42	Over	10.5	45 (56%)
2025-10-12	6	@ NYJ	42	Over	42.5	28 (47%)
2025-10-05	5	@ PHI	33	Over	22.5	30 (41%)
2025-09-29	4	vs CIN	29	Over	13.5	35 (43%)
2025-09-14	2	@ IND	12	Under	10.5	25 (43%)
2025-09-07	1	vs TEN	21	Under	25.5	26 (34%)
2024-12-08	14	@ TEN	33	Over	—	42 (71%)
2024-12-01	13	vs HOU	41	Over	—	50 (71%)
2024-11-17	11	@ DET	28	Over	—	36 (75%)
2024-11-10	10	vs MIN	40	Over	—	37 (84%)
2024-11-03	9	@ PHI	45	Over	—	43 (80%)
2024-10-27	8	vs GB	36	Over	—	47 (82%)
2024-10-20	7	vs NE	35	Over	—	34 (56%)
2024-10-13	6	@ CHI	102	Over	—	38 (61%)
2024-09-08	1	@ MIA	5	Under	—	36 (68%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 22.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 13m ago.