NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Mike Evans WR

SF vs WAS · Mon Oct 19 · 8:15 PM ET

72.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 10 30%3/10 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 65.2
Graph avg: 55.4
Graph median: 41.50–132
Over the close: 40%4/10

2026 per game

Targets6.8▼-1.0

Rec4.8▲+1.0

Rec Yds65.2▲+19.2

Rec TD0.6▲+0.2

Snaps34.4▼-10.2

Snap %56.8%▼-8.8

72.5

2025

0

Oct 20
132

Dec 11
31

Dec 21
31

Dec 28
34

Jan 03
2026

49

Sep 10
54

Sep 20
34

Sep 27
76

Oct 04
113

Oct 11
?

Oct 20

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 72.5

Home 43% 6/14 · avg 64.8
Away 21% 3/14 · avg 63.1
vs WAS 50% 1/2 · avg 76.5

Alt lines last 10 · how often Over cleared

O 52.5 40% 4/10
O 62.5 30% 3/10
O 72.5 Today 30% 3/10
O 82.5 20% 2/10
O 92.5 20% 2/10

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs WAS

What WAS allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds158.1#10
Receptions13.6#2
Targets21.6#2
Yds/Target7.3#27
Rec TD1.0#12

WRs vs WAS · 2026

Each main WR who faced WAS this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+3.7

Avg diff %+6%

Beat their average50% (5/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Malik Nabers	121	52.0	+133%
Oct 11	Malachi Fields	20	31.5	-37%
Oct 04	Josh Downs	16	58.2	-73%
Oct 04	Laquon Treadwell	42	28.8	+46%
Sep 27	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	128	117.8	+9%
Sep 27	Rashid Shaheed	14	29.6	-53%
Sep 20	CeeDee Lamb	153	88.5	+73%
Sep 20	George Pickens	40	78.8	-49%
Sep 13	DeVonta Smith	53	91.0	-42%
Sep 13	Dontayvion Wicks	73	46.8	+56%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SF offense

SF offense: Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%8.3 yds	5%29.4 yds	5%11.2 yds
Short	38%6.7 yds	20%6.6 yds	26%5.6 yds

Share of SF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

WAS defense

WAS defense: Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%4.0 yds#31	4%18.8 yds#7	8%12.8 yds#10
Short	30%5.3 yds#24	16%8.9 yds#3	34%5.2 yds#22

Throws WAS faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	13%15.8 yds	9%14.7 yds	13%7.9 yds
Short	29%9.2 yds	16%7.8 yds	19%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of SF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Mike Evans WR	5	6.8	34	24.5%
2	George Kittle TE	5	5.6	28	20.7%
3	Christian McCaffrey RB	5	5.0	25	18.0%
4	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR	5	4.0	20	14.3%
5	Demarcus Robinson WR	2	3.0	6	11.6%
6	Kyle Juszczyk FB	3	2.0	6	8.0%
7	Jordan Watkins WR	1	2.0	2	7.7%
8	Brandin Cooks WR	2	1.5	3	5.4%
9	Jacob Cowing WR	5	1.0	5	3.7%
10	Luke Farrell TE	5	0.8	4	2.7%

Game log · 10 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 72.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ SEA	113	Over	51.5	38 (63%)
2026-10-04	4	vs DEN	76	Over	44.5	39 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs ARI	34	Under	55.5	18 (33%)
2026-09-20	2	vs MIA	54	Under	49.5	28 (54%)
2026-09-10	1	@ LA	49	Under	49.5	49 (75%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	34	Under	64.5	50 (75%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	31	Under	30.5	50 (75%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	31	Under	65.5	42 (66%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	132	Over	132.5	38 (55%)
2025-10-20	7	@ DET	0	Under	49.5	14 (20%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 69.5PrizePicks 72.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 5m ago.