NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Justice Hill RB

BAL vs CLE · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

11.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · All 47%15/32 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 26.6
Graph avg: 16.1
Graph median: 7.0-14–76
Over the close: 36%4/11

2026 per game

Carries3.6▲+1.8

Rush Yds26.6▲+17.3

Rush TD0.0▼-0.2

Targets2.0▼-0.7

Rec1.4▼-0.7

Rec Yds9.8▼-7.1

Snaps27.6▲+5.7

Snap %42.0%▲+4.9

11.5

2024

3

Sep 05
22

Sep 15
33

Sep 22
18

Sep 29
17

Oct 06
2

Oct 13
4

Oct 21
5

Oct 27
15

Nov 03
-2

Nov 07
13

Nov 17
55

Nov 25
6

Dec 01
7

Dec 15
30

Dec 21
12

Jan 11
50

Jan 19
2025

-14

Sep 07
7

Sep 14
0

Sep 22
76

Sep 28
3

Oct 05
16

Oct 12
2

Oct 26
2

Oct 30
1

Nov 09
0

Nov 23
2026

18

Sep 13
6

Sep 20
33

Sep 27
3

Oct 04
73

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 11.5

Home 38% 6/16 · avg 8.8
Away 56% 9/16 · avg 23.5
vs CLE 0% 0/2 · avg 6.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 1.5 84% 27/32
O 6.5 53% 17/32
O 11.5 Today 47% 15/32
O 16.5 34% 11/32
O 21.5 25% 8/32

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs CLE

What CLE allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds122.2#2
Yds/Carry5.1#1
Rush TD0.8#10
Targets5.2#19
Rec Yds19.9#31

RBs vs CLE · 2026

Each main RB who faced CLE this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+22.4

Avg diff %+64%

Beat their average80% (4/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Braelon Allen	116	30.0	+287%
Oct 01	Jaylen Warren	93	79.2	+17%
Sep 27	Chuba Hubbard	82	74.7	+10%
Sep 20	Bucky Irving	89	79.2	+12%
Sep 13	Bhayshul Tuten	66	70.8	-7%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BAL offense

BAL offense: Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%19.9 yds	3%14.1 yds	7%14.9 yds
Short	27%6.6 yds	24%9.8 yds	31%5.3 yds

Share of BAL pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CLE defense

CLE defense: Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.8 yds#26	5%16.4 yds#13	7%6.2 yds#30
Short	30%4.7 yds#31	14%7.0 yds#15	37%6.1 yds#8

Throws CLE faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	31%6.2 yds	25%7.0 yds	41%6.1 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BAL targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Zay Flowers WR	4	7.8	31	29.6%
2	Mark Andrews TE	5	6.0	30	22.8%
3	Rashod Bateman WR	5	4.2	21	15.3%
4	Ja'Kobi Lane WR	1	3.0	3	12.5%
5	Chris Moore WR	3	2.0	6	7.9%
6	Matthew Hibner TE	3	1.7	5	7.0%
7	Justice Hill RB	5	2.0	10	6.9%
8	Elijah Sarratt WR	1	2.0	2	6.9%
9	Derrick Henry RB	5	1.8	9	6.6%
10	Devontez Walker WR	4	1.8	7	6.3%

Game log · 32 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 11.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ ATL	73	Over	11.5	35 (46%)
2026-10-04	4	vs TEN	3	Under	16.5	24 (38%)
2026-09-27	3	@ DAL	33	Over	13.5	21 (33%)
2026-09-20	2	vs NO	6	Under	13.5	27 (47%)
2026-09-13	1	@ IND	18	Over	8.5	31 (46%)
2025-11-23	12	vs NYJ	0	Under	—	16 (25%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIN	1	Under	—	19 (27%)
2025-10-30	9	@ MIA	2	Under	—	11 (20%)
2025-10-26	8	vs CHI	2	Under	9.5	19 (31%)
2025-10-12	6	vs LA	16	Over	20.5	35 (45%)
2025-10-05	5	vs HOU	3	Under	7.5	13 (30%)
2025-09-28	4	@ KC	76	Over	10.5	32 (58%)
2025-09-22	3	vs DET	0	Under	0.5	29 (51%)
2025-09-14	2	vs CLE	7	Under	—	22 (39%)
2025-09-07	1	@ BUF	-14	Under	8.5	23 (45%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	@ BUF	50	Over	—	24 (41%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	vs PIT	12	Over	—	29 (39%)
2024-12-21	16	vs PIT	30	Over	—	7 (11%)
2024-12-15	15	@ NYG	7	Under	—	22 (37%)
2024-12-01	13	vs PHI	6	Under	—	36 (50%)
2024-11-25	12	@ LAC	55	Over	—	26 (40%)
2024-11-17	11	@ PIT	13	Over	—	30 (49%)
2024-11-07	10	vs CIN	-2	Under	—	22 (35%)
2024-11-03	9	vs DEN	15	Over	—	19 (33%)
2024-10-27	8	@ CLE	5	Under	—	34 (50%)
2024-10-21	7	@ TB	4	Under	—	27 (46%)
2024-10-13	6	vs WAS	2	Under	—	26 (38%)
2024-10-06	5	@ CIN	17	Over	—	41 (53%)
2024-09-29	4	vs BUF	18	Over	—	20 (35%)
2024-09-22	3	@ DAL	33	Over	—	26 (41%)
2024-09-15	2	vs LV	22	Over	—	35 (54%)
2024-09-05	1	@ KC	3	Under	—	43 (54%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 11.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 12m ago.