NFL Prop Research

TK

Travis Kelce TE

KC vs LAC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

52.5 Rec Yds O -111U -113

BookBetMGM · 52.5Caesars · 52.5DraftKings · 52.5Bally Bet · 52.5FanDuel · 53.5Fanatics · 55.5

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg

61.5

Graph avg

52.5

Graph median

56.56–101

Over the close

35%7/20

2026 per game

Targets5.5▼-0.9

Rec4.0▼-0.5

Rec Yds61.5▲+11.4

Rec TD0.5▲+0.2

Snaps52.0▼-1.1

Snap %79.5%▼-2.4

Splits all logged games · over 52.5

• Home 57% 12/21 · avg 58.1
• Away 42% 8/19 · avg 46.0
• vs LAC 50% 2/4 · avg 62.8

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

• O 42.5 70% 14/20
• O 47.5 60% 12/20
• O 52.5 Today 55% 11/20
• O 57.5 50% 10/20
• O 62.5 35% 7/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LAC

What LAC allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Rec Yds46.4#20
• Receptions4.1#28
• Targets5.9#30
• Yds/Target7.9#8
• Rec TD0.2#26

TEs vs LAC · 2026

Each main TE who faced LAC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+6.4

Avg diff %+40%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	DEN Evan Engram	55	15.8	+248%
Oct 04	SEA AJ Barner	12	25.2	-52%
Sep 27	BUF Dalton Kincaid	38	59.8	-36%
Sep 20	LV Michael Mayer	23	37.0	-38%
Sep 13	ARI Trey McBride	95	53.2	+78%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

KC offense

KC offense: Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%13.9 yds	5%10.5 yds	8%12.4 yds
Short	28%5.9 yds	17%4.9 yds	38%5.3 yds

Share of KC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAC defense

LAC defense: Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.8 yds#1	3%12.0 yds#26	4%12.9 yds#9
Short	33%6.1 yds#10	17%6.6 yds#19	34%5.8 yds#13

Throws LAC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%0.0 yds	2%48.0 yds	5%0.0 yds
Short	24%7.4 yds	26%5.7 yds	38%8.4 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Target share · KC 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of KC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Rashee Rice WR	3	5.7	17	20.4%
2	Xavier Worthy WR	4	5.5	22	18.7%
3	Travis Kelce TE	4	5.5	22	17.3%
4	Kenneth Walker III RB	4	4.8	19	14.9%
5	Tyquan Thornton WR	4	3.8	15	12.9%
6	Noah Gray TE	4	2.0	8	7.6%
7	Emmett Johnson RB	4	1.2	5	4.1%
8	Jalen Royals WR	4	1.2	5	4.1%
9	Cyrus Allen WR	2	1.0	2	3.9%
10	Jake Briningstool TE	3	0.7	2	2.8%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 52.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ LV	15	Under	47.5	50 (83%)
2026-09-27	3	@ MIA	59	Over	52.5	41 (79%)
2026-09-20	2	vs IND	101	Over	41.5	68 (85%)
2026-09-14	1	vs DEN	71	Over	42.5	49 (71%)
2026-01-04	18	@ LV	12	Under	24.5	51 (80%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DEN	36	Under	13.5	42 (98%)
2025-12-21	16	@ TEN	6	Under	51.5	35 (78%)
2025-12-14	15	vs LAC	70	Over	45.5	60 (98%)
2025-12-07	14	vs HOU	8	Under	16.5	58 (91%)
2025-11-27	13	@ DAL	45	Under	45.5	60 (91%)
2025-11-23	12	vs IND	43	Under	45.5	84 (88%)
2025-11-16	11	@ DEN	91	Over	91.5	55 (79%)
2025-11-02	9	@ BUF	66	Over	66.5	55 (92%)
2025-10-27	8	vs WAS	99	Over	100.5	58 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs LV	54	Over	55.5	50 (62%)
2025-10-12	6	vs DET	78	Over	70.5	45 (70%)
2025-10-06	5	@ JAX	61	Over	45.5	51 (80%)
2025-09-28	4	vs BAL	48	Under	48.5	48 (66%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NYG	26	Under	30.5	53 (74%)
2025-09-14	2	vs PHI	61	Over	61.5	46 (77%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 53.5Underdog 59.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.