NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Pat Freiermuth TE

PIT vs TB · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

36.5 Rec Yds O -115U -109

Hit rate · Last 20 30%6/20 Odds imply 50.6% Over

Season avg: 33.8
Graph avg: 32.2
Graph median: 28.56–111
Over the close: 53%10/19

2026 per game

Targets5.2▲+1.6

Rec3.8▲+1.2

Rec Yds33.8▲+2.3

Rec TD0.8▲+0.6

Snaps45.4▲+12.3

Snap %68.4%▲+14.9

36.5

2025

31

Sep 14
6

Sep 21
11

Oct 12
111

Oct 16
13

Oct 26
27

Nov 02
33

Nov 09
19

Nov 16
19

Nov 23
9

Dec 07
45

Dec 15
20

Dec 21
63

Dec 28
51

Jan 04
18

Jan 12
2026

46

Sep 13
32

Sep 20
30

Sep 27
17

Oct 01
44

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 36.5

Home 42% 8/19 · avg 35.1
Away 30% 6/20 · avg 33.7
vs TB No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 26.5 55% 11/20
O 31.5 40% 8/20
O 36.5 Today 30% 6/20
O 41.5 30% 6/20
O 46.5 15% 3/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs TB

What TB allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds68.8#5
Receptions6.5#5
Targets8.7#4
Yds/Target7.9#7
Rec TD0.9#5

TEs vs TB · 2026

Each main TE who faced TB this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+8.1

Avg diff %+43%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 08	Jake Ferguson	19	20.8	-8%
Oct 04	Tucker Kraft	42	42.5	-1%
Sep 27	T.J. Hockenson	11	47.8	-77%
Sep 20	Harold Fannin Jr.	54	25.8	+110%
Sep 13	Mike Gesicki	78	27.0	+189%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

PIT offense

PIT offense: Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%7.0 yds	4%15.5 yds	9%5.6 yds
Short	30%5.1 yds	18%8.3 yds	32%5.2 yds

Share of PIT pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TB defense

TB defense: Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%9.7 yds#20	5%12.7 yds#22	6%9.3 yds#24
Short	34%7.0 yds#4	16%7.7 yds#13	32%5.8 yds#12

Throws TB faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%0.0 yds	8%18.0 yds	12%3.2 yds
Short	35%7.4 yds	17%12.5 yds	21%4.9 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of PIT targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	DK Metcalf WR	5	7.4	37	20.8%
2	Pat Freiermuth TE	5	5.2	26	15.2%
3	Jaylen Warren RB	5	5.2	26	15.1%
4	Germie Bernard WR	4	5.0	20	15.0%
5	Roman Wilson WR	5	5.0	25	14.1%
6	Michael Pittman WR	3	4.0	12	11.5%
7	Rico Dowdle RB	2	3.5	7	9.5%
8	Darnell Washington TE	5	3.2	16	9.3%
9	Ben Skowronek WR	3	1.3	4	3.7%
10	Robert Tonyan TE	1	1.0	1	3.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 36.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs IND	44	Over	27.5	41 (68%)
2026-10-01	4	@ CLE	17	Under	27.5	54 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	vs CIN	30	Under	36.5	37 (60%)
2026-09-20	2	@ NE	32	Under	31.5	46 (66%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ATL	46	Over	26.5	49 (73%)
2026-01-12	19 (P)	vs HOU	18	Under	18.5	39 (68%)
2026-01-04	18	vs BAL	51	Over	20.5	52 (69%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CLE	63	Over	24.5	46 (70%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DET	20	Under	20.5	32 (43%)
2025-12-15	15	vs MIA	45	Over	45.5	28 (42%)
2025-12-07	14	@ BAL	9	Under	17.5	31 (60%)
2025-11-23	12	@ CHI	19	Under	18.5	34 (47%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CIN	19	Under	33.5	30 (46%)
2025-11-09	10	@ LAC	33	Under	22.5	26 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	vs IND	27	Under	20.5	29 (47%)
2025-10-26	8	vs GB	13	Under	—	27 (43%)
2025-10-16	7	@ CIN	111	Over	40.5	37 (65%)
2025-10-12	6	vs CLE	11	Under	11.5	21 (36%)
2025-09-21	3	@ NE	6	Under	6.5	38 (70%)
2025-09-14	2	vs SEA	31	Under	10.5	31 (50%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 36.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 11m ago.