NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Sam Darnold QB

SEA vs KC · Sun Oct 25 · 8:20 PM ET

224.5 Pass Yds

Hit rate · All 63%27/43 Odds imply —

Season avg: 206.6
Graph avg: 239.9
Graph median: 244.013–379
Over the close: 64%14/22

2026 per game

Pass Yds206.6▼-29.4

Att29.8▲+1.4

Cmp%60.4%▼-6.3

Pass TD1.4▼-0.1

INT1.4▲+0.7

Rush Yds7.0▲+1.5

Snaps56.0▼-4.6

Snap %82.0%▼-14.2

224.5

2024

275

Sep 29
179

Oct 06
259

Oct 20
240

Oct 24
290

Nov 03
241

Nov 10
246

Nov 17
330

Nov 24
235

Dec 01
347

Dec 08
231

Dec 16
246

Dec 22
377

Dec 29
166

Jan 05
245

Jan 13
2025

150

Sep 07
295

Sep 14
218

Sep 21
242

Sep 25
341

Oct 05
295

Oct 12
213

Oct 20
330

Nov 02
178

Nov 09
279

Nov 16
244

Nov 23
128

Nov 30
249

Dec 07
271

Dec 14
270

Dec 18
147

Dec 28
198

Jan 03
124

Jan 17
346

Jan 25
202

Feb 08
2026

13

Sep 09
379

Sep 27
168

Oct 04
195

Oct 11
278

Oct 15
?

Oct 26

Showing the latest 40 of 43 games.

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 224.5

Home 50% 11/22 · avg 226.5
Away 76% 16/21 · avg 254.0
vs KC No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 204.5 70% 30/43
O 214.5 65% 28/43
O 224.5 Today 63% 27/43
O 234.5 60% 26/43
O 244.5 49% 21/43

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs KC

What KC allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Pass Yds204.8#28
Yds/Att6.1#29
Cmp%60.7%#26
Pass TD0.9#31
Pass Att33.6#13

QBs vs KC · 2026

Each main QB who faced KC this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+26.0

Avg diff %+12%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Justin Herbert	204	187.4	+9%
Oct 04	Kirk Cousins	365	243.4	+50%
Sep 27	Malik Willis	210	159.8	+31%
Sep 20	Daniel Jones	210	216.0	-3%
Sep 14	Bo Nix	131	183.6	-29%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

SEA offense

SEA offense: Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.0 yds	4%11.5 yds	7%16.4 yds
Short	32%6.3 yds	16%7.5 yds	36%6.2 yds

Share of SEA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%11.7 yds#12	5%14.2 yds#20	5%4.2 yds#31
Short	27%5.0 yds#27	17%6.2 yds#24	37%4.8 yds#28

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%7.5 yds	4%11.6 yds	8%13.1 yds
Short	33%6.0 yds	16%7.0 yds	35%6.2 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/att

Each pass-catcher’s share of SEA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR	6	11.0	66	35.6%
2	Rashid Shaheed WR	6	4.5	27	14.9%
3	Cooper Kupp WR	6	4.2	25	12.4%
4	AJ Barner TE	6	4.0	24	12.4%
5	Jadarian Price RB	3	2.3	7	7.6%
6	Tory Horton WR	3	3.0	9	7.5%
7	George Holani RB	6	2.0	12	6.5%
8	Emanuel Wilson RB	6	1.3	8	5.6%
9	Elijah Arroyo TE	2	1.0	2	3.8%
10	Brady Russell RB	5	0.6	3	2.1%

Game log · 43 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 224.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-15	6	@ DEN	278	Over	224.5	85 (100%)
2026-10-11	5	vs SF	195	Under	231.5	63 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	vs LAC	168	Under	233.5	60 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	@ WAS	379	Over	219.5	67 (100%)
2026-09-09	1	vs NE	13	Under	228.5	5 (10%)
2026-02-08	22 (P)	@ NE	202	Under	231.5	72 (100%)
2026-01-25	21 (P)	vs LA	346	Over	233.5	67 (100%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	vs SF	124	Under	215.5	47 (89%)
2026-01-03	18	@ SF	198	Under	180.5	69 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ CAR	147	Under	140.5	66 (100%)
2025-12-18	16	vs LA	270	Over	240.5	68 (100%)
2025-12-14	15	vs IND	271	Over	245.5	60 (100%)
2025-12-07	14	@ ATL	249	Over	235.5	53 (87%)
2025-11-30	13	vs MIN	128	Under	140.5	64 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	@ TEN	244	Over	234.5	48 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	@ LA	279	Over	250.5	84 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs ARI	178	Under	267.5	56 (90%)
2025-11-02	9	@ WAS	330	Over	—	48 (94%)
2025-10-20	7	vs HOU	213	Under	—	72 (100%)
2025-10-12	6	@ JAX	295	Over	234.5	55 (100%)
2025-10-05	5	vs TB	341	Over	227.5	61 (100%)
2025-09-25	4	@ ARI	242	Over	190.5	66 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs NO	218	Under	—	39 (68%)
2025-09-14	2	@ PIT	295	Over	273.5	65 (100%)
2025-09-07	1	vs SF	150	Under	206.5	52 (100%)
2025-01-13	19 (P)	@ LA	245	Over	—	74 (100%)
2025-01-05	18	@ DET	166	Under	—	65 (100%)
2024-12-29	17	vs GB	377	Over	—	72 (100%)
2024-12-22	16	@ SEA	246	Over	—	66 (100%)
2024-12-16	15	vs CHI	231	Over	—	77 (100%)
2024-12-08	14	vs ATL	347	Over	—	58 (97%)
2024-12-01	13	vs ARI	235	Over	—	53 (100%)
2024-11-24	12	@ CHI	330	Over	—	69 (97%)
2024-11-17	11	@ TEN	246	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-11-10	10	@ JAX	241	Over	—	84 (100%)
2024-11-03	9	vs IND	290	Over	—	73 (100%)
2024-10-24	8	@ LA	240	Over	—	50 (100%)
2024-10-20	7	vs DET	259	Over	—	60 (100%)
2024-10-06	5	vs NYJ	179	Under	—	72 (99%)
2024-09-29	4	@ GB	275	Over	—	68 (100%)
2024-09-22	3	vs HOU	181	Under	—	61 (97%)
2024-09-15	2	vs SF	268	Over	—	54 (100%)
2024-09-08	1	@ NYG	208	Under	—	55 (100%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 223.5Underdog 224.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 10m ago.