NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Bucky Irving RB

TB vs PIT · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

64.5 Rush Yds O -114U -114

Hit rate · Last 20 55%11/20 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 81.2
Graph avg: 72.9
Graph median: 67.019–165
Over the close: 40%6/15

2026 per game

Carries15.4▼-1.9

Rush Yds81.2▲+22.4

Rush TD0.4▲+0.3

Targets3.6▲+0.1

Rec3.0+0.0

Rec Yds14.2▼-13.5

Snaps39.6▼-2.5

Snap %60.8%▼-0.8

64.5

2024

117

Dec 15
68

Dec 22
113

Dec 29
89

Jan 05
77

Jan 12
2025

37

Sep 07
71

Sep 15
66

Sep 21
63

Sep 28
61

Nov 30
55

Dec 07
60

Dec 11
71

Dec 21
19

Dec 28
85

Jan 03
2026

45

Sep 13
89

Sep 20
46

Sep 27
61

Oct 04
165

Oct 08
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 64.5

Home 42% 8/19 · avg 62.6
Away 57% 8/14 · avg 71.7
vs PIT No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 44.5 90% 18/20
O 54.5 80% 16/20
O 64.5 Today 55% 11/20
O 74.5 35% 7/20
O 84.5 30% 6/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs PIT

What PIT allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds87.8#21
Yds/Carry4.2#18
Rush TD0.4#31
Targets6.2#8
Rec Yds36.4#7

RBs vs PIT · 2026

Each main RB who faced PIT this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-12.3

Avg diff %-6%

Beat their average40% (2/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Jonathan Taylor	45	88.2	-49%
Oct 01	Quinshon Judkins	53	42.0	+26%
Sep 27	Chase Brown	61	46.2	+32%
Sep 20	Rhamondre Stevenson	43	46.0	-7%
Sep 13	Bijan Robinson	83	124.2	-33%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

TB offense

TB offense: Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%8.6 yds	4%15.1 yds	8%9.4 yds
Short	31%5.5 yds	15%7.0 yds	34%5.6 yds

Share of TB pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

PIT defense

PIT defense: Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%16.4 yds#2	4%11.9 yds#28	5%19.2 yds#1
Short	35%6.0 yds#14	20%6.3 yds#21	26%5.7 yds#15

Throws PIT faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%72.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	49%4.9 yds	5%6.5 yds	44%4.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of TB targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Emeka Egbuka WR	5	6.6	33	22.9%
2	Cade Otton TE	5	5.4	27	18.6%
3	Chris Godwin Jr. WR	5	4.2	21	14.9%
4	Ted Hurst III WR	4	4.0	16	13.1%
5	Bucky Irving RB	5	3.6	18	12.3%
6	Kenny Gainwell RB	5	3.2	16	10.8%
7	Tez Johnson WR	5	2.0	10	6.6%
8	Payne Durham TE	2	1.0	2	3.4%
9	Jalen McMillan WR	1	1.0	1	2.9%
10	Kameron Johnson WR	5	0.4	2	1.5%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 64.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-08	5	@ DAL	165	Over	52.5	39 (54%)
2026-10-04	4	vs GB	61	Under	55.5	37 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs MIN	46	Under	57.5	36 (52%)
2026-09-20	2	vs CLE	89	Over	65.5	51 (78%)
2026-09-13	1	@ CIN	45	Under	60.5	35 (61%)
2026-01-03	18	vs CAR	85	Over	81.5	42 (63%)
2025-12-28	17	@ MIA	19	Under	20.5	36 (54%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CAR	71	Over	80.5	40 (62%)
2025-12-11	15	vs ATL	60	Under	70.5	37 (54%)
2025-12-07	14	vs NO	55	Under	71.5	36 (49%)
2025-11-30	13	vs ARI	61	Under	41.5	32 (52%)
2025-09-28	4	vs PHI	63	Under	60.5	44 (61%)
2025-09-21	3	vs NYJ	66	Over	70.5	53 (74%)
2025-09-15	2	@ HOU	71	Over	80.5	57 (71%)
2025-09-07	1	@ ATL	37	Under	71.5	44 (76%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs WAS	77	Over	—	33 (69%)
2025-01-05	18	vs NO	89	Over	—	48 (72%)
2024-12-29	17	vs CAR	113	Over	—	42 (55%)
2024-12-22	16	@ DAL	68	Over	—	41 (57%)
2024-12-15	15	@ LAC	117	Over	—	32 (44%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 64.5Underdog 69.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: FanDuel, updated 13m ago.