NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Keenan Allen WR

IND vs TEN · Sun Oct 18 · 1:00 PM ET

41.5 Rec Yds O -121U —

Hit rate · All 40%15/37 Odds imply —

Season avg: 36.2
Graph avg: 45.7
Graph median: 39.05–141
Over the close: 27%4/15

2026 per game

Targets7.2+0.0

Rec4.5▼-0.2

Rec Yds36.2▼-8.3

Rec TD0.2+0.0

Snaps38.2▲+1.2

Snap %59.0%▲+3.3

41.5

2024

29

Sep 08
19

Sep 29
33

Oct 06
41

Oct 13
39

Oct 27
36

Nov 03
44

Nov 10
41

Nov 17
86

Nov 24
73

Nov 28
30

Dec 08
82

Dec 16
141

Dec 22
25

Dec 26
25

Jan 05
2025

68

Sep 05
61

Sep 15
65

Sep 21
37

Sep 28
58

Oct 05
27

Oct 12
119

Oct 19
44

Oct 23
41

Nov 02
19

Nov 09
53

Nov 16
30

Nov 30
22

Dec 08
36

Dec 14
44

Dec 21
17

Dec 27
36

Jan 04
25

Jan 11
2026

32

Sep 13
5

Sep 20
63

Sep 27
45

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 41.5

Home 45% 9/20 · avg 49.8
Away 35% 6/17 · avg 40.9
vs TEN 0% 0/2 · avg 35.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 31.5 68% 25/37
O 36.5 54% 20/37
O 41.5 Today 40% 15/37
O 46.5 30% 11/37
O 51.5 30% 11/37

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs TEN

What TEN allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds166.2#9
Receptions12.2#9
Targets16.8#21
Yds/Target9.9#1
Rec TD1.0#11

WRs vs TEN · 2026

Each main WR who faced TEN this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-2.5

Avg diff %-6%

Beat their average40% (4/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Nico Collins	56	96.5	-42%
Oct 11	Jaylin Noel	41	46.5	-12%
Oct 04	Zay Flowers	118	95.7	+23%
Oct 04	Rashod Bateman	46	46.8	-2%
Sep 27	Malik Nabers	26	75.8	-66%
Sep 27	Malachi Fields	19	31.8	-40%
Sep 20	DeVonta Smith	117	59.0	+98%
Sep 20	Dontayvion Wicks	74	46.5	+59%
Sep 13	Garrett Wilson	79	73.8	+7%
Sep 13	Isaiah Williams	7	36.0	-81%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

IND offense

IND offense: Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%5.7 yds	4%15.9 yds	6%7.4 yds
Short	33%5.1 yds	17%7.1 yds	32%4.9 yds

Share of IND pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

TEN defense

TEN defense: Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%11.5 yds#13	4%20.0 yds#6	9%15.3 yds#4
Short	31%6.7 yds#7	16%9.8 yds#2	34%5.7 yds#14

Throws TEN faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	3%0.0 yds	0%	4%8.7 yds
Short	38%5.1 yds	15%7.2 yds	40%3.5 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of IND targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tyler Warren TE	5	7.2	36	21.5%
2	Keenan Allen WR	4	7.2	29	21.0%
3	Josh Downs WR	5	6.8	34	20.6%
4	Ashton Dulin WR	2	3.5	7	12.1%
5	Alec Pierce WR	2	3.5	7	12.0%
6	Jonathan Taylor RB	5	3.8	19	11.8%
7	Laquon Treadwell WR	5	3.8	19	11.1%
8	Deion Burks WR	3	1.3	4	3.8%
9	Mo Alie-Cox TE	2	1.5	3	3.8%
10	Seth McGowan RB	5	0.8	4	2.5%

Game log · 37 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 41.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ PIT	45	Over	30.5	32 (45%)
2026-09-27	3	vs HOU	63	Over	32.5	52 (73%)
2026-09-20	2	@ KC	5	Under	29.5	33 (51%)
2026-09-13	1	vs BAL	32	Under	28.5	36 (67%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	25	Under	33.5	36 (60%)
2026-01-04	18	@ DEN	36	Under	—	38 (54%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	17	Under	20.5	36 (57%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	44	Over	44.5	30 (47%)
2025-12-14	15	@ KC	36	Under	36.5	28 (42%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	22	Under	20.5	42 (57%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	30	Under	30.5	40 (60%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	53	Over	55.5	36 (75%)
2025-11-09	10	vs PIT	19	Under	41.5	37 (51%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	41	Under	41.5	24 (37%)
2025-10-23	8	vs MIN	44	Over	45.5	18 (25%)
2025-10-19	7	vs IND	119	Over	119.5	49 (64%)
2025-10-12	6	@ MIA	27	Under	—	36 (56%)
2025-10-05	5	vs WAS	58	Over	—	39 (58%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	37	Under	—	49 (78%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DEN	65	Over	—	56 (65%)
2025-09-15	2	@ LV	61	Over	—	32 (55%)
2025-09-05	1	vs KC	68	Over	—	40 (62%)
2025-01-05	18	@ GB	25	Under	—	54 (87%)
2024-12-26	17	vs SEA	25	Under	—	58 (95%)
2024-12-22	16	vs DET	141	Over	—	59 (92%)
2024-12-16	15	@ MIN	82	Over	—	55 (82%)
2024-12-08	14	@ SF	30	Under	—	47 (89%)
2024-11-28	13	@ DET	73	Over	—	64 (96%)
2024-11-24	12	vs MIN	86	Over	—	68 (89%)
2024-11-17	11	vs GB	41	Under	—	66 (92%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NE	44	Over	—	56 (93%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ARI	36	Under	—	69 (93%)
2024-10-27	8	@ WAS	39	Under	—	61 (97%)
2024-10-13	6	vs JAX	41	Under	—	53 (80%)
2024-10-06	5	vs CAR	33	Under	—	61 (81%)
2024-09-29	4	vs LA	19	Under	—	41 (68%)
2024-09-08	1	vs TEN	29	Under	—	38 (68%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 43.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Bally Bet, updated 12m ago.