NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Michael Wilson WR

ARI vs LAR · Sun Oct 18 · 4:05 PM ET

60.5 Rec Yds O -115U -125

Hit rate · Last 5 40%2/5 Odds imply 49.1% Over

Season avg: 57.6
Graph avg: 57.6
Graph median: 56.018–95
Over the close: 50%2/4

2026 per game

Targets10.2▲+2.8

Rec5.8▲+1.2

Rec Yds57.6▼-1.6

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps63.0▲+8.7

Snap %90.0%▲+8.6

60.5

2026

56

Sep 13
18

Sep 20
89

Sep 27
95

Oct 04
30

Oct 11
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 60.5

Home 22% 4/18 · avg 48.1
Away 30% 6/20 · avg 48.9
vs LAR 50% 2/4 · avg 73.5

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 40.5 60% 3/5
O 50.5 60% 3/5
O 60.5 Today 40% 2/5
O 70.5 40% 2/5
O 80.5 40% 2/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LAR

What LAR allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds129.6#23
Receptions9.3#30
Targets16.1#28
Yds/Target8.0#16
Rec TD1.3#3

WRs vs LAR · 2026

Each main WR who faced LAR this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-15.6

Avg diff %-17%

Beat their average50% (5/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 12	Keon Coleman	7	54.2	-87%
Oct 12	Khalil Shakir	80	44.0	+82%
Oct 04	Dontayvion Wicks	18	60.5	-70%
Oct 04	Darius Cooper	33	24.2	+36%
Sep 27	Jaylen Waddle	10	43.6	-77%
Sep 27	Pat Bryant	44	29.7	+48%
Sep 21	Malik Nabers	1	82.0	-99%
Sep 21	Malachi Fields	30	29.0	+3%
Sep 10	Mike Evans	49	69.2	-29%
Sep 10	Deebo Samuel Sr.	48	39.5	+22%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

ARI offense

ARI offense: Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.3 yds	2%13.8 yds	8%7.9 yds
Short	29%6.1 yds	20%5.6 yds	35%5.3 yds

Share of ARI pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LAR defense

LAR defense: Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%10.0 yds#16	5%15.4 yds#15	7%5.0 yds#31
Short	31%6.0 yds#13	18%4.8 yds#31	31%6.3 yds#4

Throws LAR faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%7.1 yds	1%0.0 yds	14%10.5 yds
Short	27%7.5 yds	7%5.3 yds	36%6.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of ARI targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Trey McBride TE	5	11.2	56	30.3%
2	Michael Wilson WR	5	10.2	51	26.4%
3	Kendrick Bourne WR	4	5.5	22	14.1%
4	Reggie Virgil WR	1	5.0	5	10.9%
5	Marvin Harrison Jr. WR	4	3.2	13	8.3%
6	Jeremiyah Love RB	5	2.8	14	7.5%
7	Tyler Allgeier RB	5	2.4	12	6.2%
8	Elijah Higgins TE	4	2.0	8	4.6%
9	Jalen Brooks WR	4	2.0	8	4.3%
10	Teagan Quitoriano TE	1	2.0	2	4.3%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 60.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs DET	30	Under	79.5	61 (84%)
2026-10-04	4	@ NYG	95	Over	56.5	62 (94%)
2026-09-27	3	@ SF	89	Over	—	81 (93%)
2026-09-20	2	vs SEA	18	Under	46.5	47 (94%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LAC	56	Under	52.5	64 (85%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 58.5Underdog 59.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Fanatics, updated 17m ago.