NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

James Cook III RB

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

93.5 Rush Yds O -111U -113

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply 49.8% Over

Season avg: 106.4
Graph avg: 95.8
Graph median: 97.015–216
Over the close: 47%9/19

2026 per game

Carries19.0▲+0.7

Rush Yds106.4▲+12.5

Rush TD1.0▲+0.4

Targets2.2▼-0.2

Rec1.4▼-0.5

Rec Yds6.2▼-10.6

Snaps43.2▲+4.9

Snap %66.8%▲+9.1

93.5

2025

49

Oct 05
87

Oct 13
216

Oct 26
114

Nov 02
53

Nov 09
48

Nov 16
116

Nov 20
144

Nov 30
80

Dec 07
107

Dec 14
117

Dec 21
74

Dec 28
15

Jan 04
46

Jan 11
117

Jan 17
2026

57

Sep 13
135

Sep 17
154

Sep 27
75

Oct 04
111

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 93.5

Home 36% 8/22 · avg 75.7
Away 48% 10/21 · avg 92.0
vs LV No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 73.5 70% 14/20
O 83.5 55% 11/20
O 93.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 103.5 50% 10/20
O 113.5 40% 8/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · RBs vs LV

What LV allowed to RBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rush Yds112.0#6
Yds/Carry4.6#7
Rush TD0.7#14
Targets5.6#14
Rec Yds28.0#23

RBs vs LV · 2026

Each main RB who faced LV this season: rush yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+18.8

Avg diff %+29%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	TreVeyon Henderson	22	47.0	-53%
Oct 04	Kenneth Walker III	177	120.0	+48%
Sep 27	Travis Etienne	57	35.5	+61%
Sep 20	Omarion Hampton	94	44.2	+112%
Sep 13	De'Von Achane	36	45.5	-21%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	4%0.0 yds	0%	0%
Short	38%2.4 yds	4%0.0 yds	54%4.3 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rush Yds	vs 93.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	111	Over	76.5	40 (62%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	75	Under	85.5	35 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	154	Over	79.5	44 (67%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	135	Over	79.5	55 (74%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	57	Under	74.5	42 (72%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	117	Over	76.5	50 (64%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	46	Under	48.5	38 (60%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	15	Under	—	2 (3%)
2025-12-28	17	vs PHI	74	Under	87.5	39 (51%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	117	Over	120.5	28 (56%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	107	Over	84.5	47 (67%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	80	Under	75.5	48 (75%)
2025-11-30	13	@ PIT	144	Over	155.5	45 (61%)
2025-11-20	12	@ HOU	116	Over	115.5	36 (55%)
2025-11-16	11	vs TB	48	Under	25.5	37 (66%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	53	Under	50.5	34 (50%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	114	Over	115.5	50 (76%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	216	Over	235.5	28 (44%)
2025-10-13	6	@ ATL	87	Under	90.5	30 (53%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	49	Under	50.5	49 (72%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 92.5Underdog 99.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.