NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

DJ Moore WR

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

49.5 Rec Yds O -113U -111

Hit rate · All 48%19/40 Odds imply 50.2% Over

Season avg: 44.5
Graph avg: 48.5
Graph median: 47.5-4–106
Over the close: 41%9/22

2026 per game

Targets5.0▼-0.3

Rec3.0▼-0.2

Rec Yds44.5▲+2.5

Rec TD0.2▼-0.2

Snaps33.0▼-25.1

Snap %52.5%▼-31.7

49.5

2024

36

Sep 08
53

Sep 15
78

Sep 22
22

Sep 29
105

Oct 06
20

Oct 13
27

Oct 27
33

Nov 03
24

Nov 10
62

Nov 17
106

Nov 24
97

Nov 28
49

Dec 08
46

Dec 16
68

Dec 22
54

Dec 26
86

Jan 05
2025

68

Sep 08
46

Sep 14
21

Sep 21
38

Sep 28
42

Oct 13
43

Oct 19
73

Oct 26
72

Nov 02
0

Nov 09
18

Nov 16
64

Nov 23
17

Nov 28
-4

Dec 07
69

Dec 14
97

Dec 20
7

Dec 28
11

Jan 04
64

Jan 10
52

Jan 18
2026

100

Sep 13
0

Sep 17
67

Sep 27
11

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 49.5

Home 54% 12/22 · avg 48.4
Away 39% 7/18 · avg 48.8
vs LV 0% 0/1 · avg 38.0

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 39.5 60% 24/40
O 44.5 55% 22/40
O 49.5 Today 48% 19/40
O 54.5 40% 16/40
O 59.5 40% 16/40

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs LV

What LV allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds146.7#14
Receptions10.3#21
Targets16.9#20
Yds/Target8.7#11
Rec TD0.6#26

WRs vs LV · 2026

Each main WR who faced LV this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+12.4

Avg diff %+61%

Beat their average60% (6/10)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Romeo Doubs	16	50.8	-68%
Oct 11	DeMario Douglas	65	20.5	+217%
Oct 04	Tyquan Thornton	111	36.0	+208%
Oct 04	Xavier Worthy	70	21.0	+233%
Sep 27	Chris Olave	107	107.5	+0%
Sep 27	Devaughn Vele	39	53.2	-27%
Sep 20	Ladd McConkey	35	49.3	-29%
Sep 20	Tre Harris	53	43.0	+23%
Sep 13	Malik Washington	53	52.2	+1%
Sep 13	Chris Bell	25	16.8	+49%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	14%11.1 yds	10%11.2 yds	7%20.5 yds
Short	18%7.4 yds	21%5.2 yds	30%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 40 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 49.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	11	Under	50.5	23 (39%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	67	Over	48.5	42 (64%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	0	Under	63.5	23 (31%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	100	Over	47.5	44 (76%)
2026-01-18	20 (P)	vs LA	52	Over	28.5	58 (72%)
2026-01-10	19 (P)	vs GB	64	Over	39.5	67 (86%)
2026-01-04	18	vs DET	11	Under	34.5	47 (85%)
2025-12-28	17	@ SF	7	Under	7.5	61 (92%)
2025-12-20	16	vs GB	97	Over	51.5	61 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	vs CLE	69	Over	69.5	58 (88%)
2025-12-07	14	@ GB	-4	Under	—	58 (83%)
2025-11-28	13	@ PHI	17	Under	10.5	79 (91%)
2025-11-23	12	vs PIT	64	Over	64.5	50 (77%)
2025-11-16	11	@ MIN	18	Under	20.5	61 (81%)
2025-11-09	10	vs NYG	0	Under	10.5	42 (62%)
2025-11-02	9	@ CIN	72	Over	48.5	68 (85%)
2025-10-26	8	@ BAL	73	Over	36.5	53 (84%)
2025-10-19	7	vs NO	43	Under	45.5	60 (87%)
2025-10-13	6	@ WAS	42	Under	45.5	60 (94%)
2025-09-28	4	@ LV	38	Under	38.5	52 (76%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DAL	21	Under	25.5	53 (90%)
2025-09-14	2	@ DET	46	Under	51.5	60 (88%)
2025-09-08	1	vs MIN	68	Over	65.5	56 (84%)
2025-01-05	18	@ GB	86	Over	—	61 (98%)
2024-12-26	17	vs SEA	54	Over	—	58 (95%)
2024-12-22	16	vs DET	68	Over	—	61 (95%)
2024-12-16	15	@ MIN	46	Under	—	58 (87%)
2024-12-08	14	@ SF	49	Under	—	48 (91%)
2024-11-28	13	@ DET	97	Over	—	65 (97%)
2024-11-24	12	vs MIN	106	Over	—	75 (99%)
2024-11-17	11	vs GB	62	Over	—	68 (94%)
2024-11-10	10	vs NE	24	Under	—	58 (97%)
2024-11-03	9	@ ARI	33	Under	—	73 (99%)
2024-10-27	8	@ WAS	27	Under	—	60 (95%)
2024-10-13	6	vs JAX	20	Under	—	56 (85%)
2024-10-06	5	vs CAR	105	Over	—	66 (88%)
2024-09-29	4	vs LA	22	Under	—	55 (92%)
2024-09-22	3	@ IND	78	Over	—	86 (96%)
2024-09-15	2	@ HOU	53	Over	—	69 (99%)
2024-09-08	1	vs TEN	36	Under	—	49 (88%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 49.5Underdog 49.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: DraftKings, updated 12m ago.