NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Dalton Kincaid TE

BUF vs LV · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

49.5 Rec Yds O -115U -115

Hit rate · All 26%9/35 Odds imply 50.0% Over

Season avg: 55.4
Graph avg: 42.2
Graph median: 37.00–130
Over the close: 44%8/18

2026 per game

Targets4.2▼-0.1

Rec3.2▼-0.2

Rec Yds55.4▲+6.7

Rec TD0.2▼-0.3

Snaps43.0▲+16.7

Snap %66.8%▲+28.1

49.5

2024

11

Sep 08
33

Sep 12
41

Sep 23
47

Sep 29
34

Oct 06
51

Oct 14
52

Oct 20
31

Oct 27
32

Nov 03
24

Nov 10
53

Dec 15
15

Dec 22
24

Dec 29
47

Jan 12
11

Jan 19
13

Jan 26
2025

48

Sep 07
37

Sep 14
66

Sep 18
28

Sep 28
108

Oct 05
23

Oct 26
101

Nov 02
37

Nov 09
41

Dec 07
34

Dec 14
0

Dec 21
48

Jan 04
28

Jan 11
83

Jan 17
2026

130

Sep 13
95

Sep 17
38

Sep 27
7

Oct 04
7

Oct 12
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 49.5

Home 28% 5/18 · avg 45.2
Away 24% 4/17 · avg 39.1
vs LV No games

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 39.5 43% 15/35
O 44.5 37% 13/35
O 49.5 Today 26% 9/35
O 54.5 17% 6/35
O 59.5 17% 6/35

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · TEs vs LV

What LV allowed to TEs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds47.9#18
Receptions5.8#10
Targets7.3#14
Yds/Target6.6#22
Rec TD0.9#4

TEs vs LV · 2026

Each main TE who faced LV this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-12.6

Avg diff %-15%

Beat their average60% (3/5)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 11	Hunter Henry	44	33.2	+32%
Oct 04	Travis Kelce	15	77.0	-81%
Sep 27	Juwan Johnson	53	48.8	+9%
Sep 20	Charlie Kolar	21	18.5	+14%
Sep 13	Greg Dulcich	18	36.3	-50%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

BUF offense

BUF offense: Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.4 yds	7%17.5 yds	5%17.6 yds
Short	30%7.7 yds	13%8.6 yds	36%6.0 yds

Share of BUF pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

LV defense

LV defense: Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%15.1 yds#4	4%12.0 yds#27	6%10.1 yds#21
Short	35%5.7 yds#18	15%6.6 yds#18	30%5.2 yds#20

Throws LV faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%6.0 yds	10%16.2 yds	12%15.6 yds
Short	32%13.4 yds	20%9.0 yds	18%9.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of BUF targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Khalil Shakir WR	5	5.2	26	19.5%
2	DJ Moore WR	4	5.0	20	18.4%
3	Dalton Kincaid TE	5	4.2	21	15.9%
4	Ty Johnson RB	3	3.3	10	14.8%
5	Keon Coleman WR	5	3.6	18	13.4%
6	Skyler Bell WR	1	2.0	2	11.1%
7	Josh Palmer WR	3	3.0	9	10.4%
8	James Cook RB	5	2.2	11	8.2%
9	Dawson Knox TE	5	1.8	9	7.6%
10	Ray Davis RB	4	0.5	2	2.2%

Game log · 35 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 49.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-12	5	@ LA	7	Under	55.5	45 (70%)
2026-10-04	4	vs NE	7	Under	47.5	35 (59%)
2026-09-27	3	vs LAC	38	Under	57.5	44 (67%)
2026-09-17	2	vs DET	95	Over	50.5	49 (66%)
2026-09-13	1	@ HOU	130	Over	38.5	42 (72%)
2026-01-17	20 (P)	@ DEN	83	Over	35.5	38 (49%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ JAX	28	Under	30.5	28 (44%)
2026-01-04	18	vs NYJ	48	Under	—	10 (13%)
2025-12-21	16	@ CLE	0	Under	0.5	19 (38%)
2025-12-14	15	@ NE	34	Under	42.5	25 (36%)
2025-12-07	14	vs CIN	41	Under	35.5	22 (34%)
2025-11-09	10	@ MIA	37	Under	47.5	18 (26%)
2025-11-02	9	vs KC	101	Over	92.5	23 (35%)
2025-10-26	8	@ CAR	23	Under	25.5	14 (22%)
2025-10-05	5	vs NE	108	Over	115.5	37 (54%)
2025-09-28	4	vs NO	28	Under	0.5	22 (37%)
2025-09-18	3	vs MIA	66	Over	66.5	33 (55%)
2025-09-14	2	@ NYJ	37	Under	25.5	36 (48%)
2025-09-07	1	vs BAL	48	Under	40.5	43 (51%)
2025-01-26	21 (P)	@ KC	13	Under	—	33 (45%)
2025-01-19	20 (P)	vs BAL	11	Under	—	31 (51%)
2025-01-12	19 (P)	vs DEN	47	Under	—	29 (38%)
2024-12-29	17	vs NYJ	24	Under	—	31 (44%)
2024-12-22	16	vs NE	15	Under	—	20 (34%)
2024-12-15	15	@ DET	53	Over	—	34 (49%)
2024-11-10	10	@ IND	24	Under	—	18 (24%)
2024-11-03	9	vs MIA	32	Under	—	52 (79%)
2024-10-27	8	@ SEA	31	Under	—	41 (54%)
2024-10-20	7	vs TEN	52	Over	—	40 (73%)
2024-10-14	6	@ NYJ	51	Over	—	55 (80%)
2024-10-06	5	@ HOU	34	Under	—	38 (62%)
2024-09-29	4	@ BAL	47	Under	—	37 (63%)
2024-09-23	3	vs JAX	41	Under	—	34 (53%)
2024-09-12	2	@ MIA	33	Under	—	19 (42%)
2024-09-08	1	vs ARI	11	Under	—	52 (84%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 48.5Underdog 49.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: BetMGM, updated 11m ago.