NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

A.J. Brown WR

NE vs CHI · Thu Oct 22 · 8:15 PM ET

68.5 Rec Yds O -128U -102

Hit rate · Last 5 20%1/5 Odds imply 52.6% Over

Season avg: 26.5
Graph avg: 48.2
Graph median: 27.025–95
Over the close: 0%0/5

2026 per game

Targets7.0▼-1.0

Rec3.0▼-2.1

Rec Yds26.5▼-37.8

Rec TD0.0▼-0.4

Snaps41.5▼-15.8

Snap %60.0%▼-31.2

68.5

2025

95

Dec 20
68

Dec 28
25

Jan 11
2026

26

Sep 09
27

Oct 18
?

Oct 23

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 68.5

Home 32% 6/19 · avg 59.1
Away 62% 10/16 · avg 75.1
vs CHI 100% 1/1 · avg 132.0

Alt lines last 5 · how often Over cleared

O 48.5 40% 2/5
O 58.5 40% 2/5
O 68.5 Today 20% 1/5
O 78.5 20% 1/5
O 88.5 20% 1/5

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs CHI

What CHI allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds183.7#2
Receptions12.0#10
Targets19.1#12
Yds/Target9.6#1
Rec TD1.1#5

WRs vs CHI · 2026

Each main WR who faced CHI this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm+9.9

Avg diff %+48%

Beat their average42% (5/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Drake London	62	97.6	-36%
Oct 18	Jahan Dotson	87	29.8	+192%
Oct 11	Christian Watson	143	79.0	+81%
Oct 11	Matthew Golden	123	75.6	+63%
Oct 04	Garrett Wilson	27	78.2	-65%
Oct 04	Isaiah Williams	73	15.6	+368%
Sep 28	DeVonta Smith	65	81.7	-20%
Sep 28	Dontayvion Wicks	32	50.4	-37%
Sep 20	Justin Jefferson	55	67.7	-19%
Sep 20	Jordan Addison	21	47.3	-56%
Sep 13	Tetairoa McMillan	75	99.0	-24%
Sep 13	Jalen Coker	138	60.3	+129%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

NE offense

NE offense: Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%10.7 yds	3%10.5 yds	10%14.9 yds
Short	30%5.4 yds	16%7.2 yds	29%5.9 yds

Share of NE pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

CHI defense

CHI defense: Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	6%13.1 yds#8	4%21.1 yds#1	9%12.8 yds#10
Short	29%4.5 yds#32	19%8.5 yds#5	31%6.5 yds#4

Throws CHI faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%8.6 yds	8%11.1 yds	10%7.4 yds
Short	31%7.4 yds	11%9.4 yds	30%6.0 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of NE targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	A.J. Brown WR	2	7.0	14	23.1%
2	DeMario Douglas WR	6	5.0	30	16.7%
3	Mack Hollins WR	4	5.0	20	16.7%
4	Hunter Henry TE	6	4.0	24	13.9%
5	Romeo Doubs WR	6	4.0	24	13.3%
6	Rhamondre Stevenson RB	6	3.2	19	10.4%
7	Reggie Gilliam RB	1	2.0	2	9.5%
8	Efton Chism III WR	5	2.8	14	9.0%
9	Eli Raridon TE	5	2.4	12	7.9%
10	Lan Larison RB	1	2.0	2	6.5%

Game log · 5 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 68.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-18	6	vs NYJ	27	Under	52.5	52 (76%)
2026-09-09	1	@ SEA	26	Under	64.5	31 (44%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	vs SF	25	Under	32.5	73 (100%)
2025-12-28	17	@ BUF	68	Under	68.5	48 (89%)
2025-12-20	16	@ WAS	95	Over	95.5	61 (87%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 68.5Underdog 69.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Caesars, updated 11m ago.