NFL Prop Research

MW

Malik Willis QB

MIA vs NYJ · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

168.5 Pass Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 33%5/15 Odds imply —

Season avg

169.8

Graph avg

121.4

Graph median

122.00–288

Over the close

43%3/7

2026 per game

Pass Yds169.8▲+64.3

Att26.0▲+17.2

Cmp%56.2%▼-29.6

Pass TD0.4▼-0.3

INT0.8▲+0.8

Rush Yds37.2▲+6.5

Snaps58.6▲+34.1

Snap %100.0%▲+57.8

Splits all logged games · over 168.5

• Home 29% 2/7 · avg 133.4
• Away 38% 3/8 · avg 110.9
• vs NYJ No games

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

• O 148.5 33% 5/15
• O 158.5 33% 5/15
• O 168.5 Today 33% 5/15
• O 178.5 33% 5/15
• O 188.5 33% 5/15

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · QBs vs NYJ

What NYJ allowed to QBs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

• Pass Yds239.5#15
• Yds/Att7.3#11
• Cmp%65.4%#9
• Pass TD2.4#2
• Pass Att32.7#21

QBs vs NYJ · 2026

Each main QB who faced NYJ this season: pass yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-15.2

Avg diff %+28%

Beat their average17% (1/6)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	NE Drake Maye	235	245.6	-4%
Oct 11	CLE Deshaun Watson	155	203.8	-24%
Oct 04	CHI Tyson Bagent	268	70.5	+280%
Sep 27	DET Jared Goff	269	304.0	-12%
Sep 20	GB Jordan Love	145	307.8	-53%
Sep 13	TEN Cam Ward	140	171.6	-18%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIA offense

MIA offense: Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	7%7.9 yds	8%12.1 yds	9%10.8 yds
Short	30%7.0 yds	14%7.1 yds	32%4.6 yds

Share of MIA pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

NYJ defense

NYJ defense: Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	8%10.0 yds#20	4%14.6 yds#17	8%14.2 yds#4
Short	30%5.3 yds#25	19%7.0 yds#17	31%6.5 yds#5

Throws NYJ faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His throws

His throws: Last 9 games

Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.8 yds	8%14.5 yds	11%15.9 yds
Short	24%5.5 yds	12%7.4 yds	35%4.7 yds

Last 9 games · Yds/att

Target share · MIA 2026

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIA targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Malik Washington WR	5	7.2	36	28.0%
2	Caleb Douglas WR	2	5.0	10	19.5%
3	Kevin Coleman Jr. WR	4	4.2	17	17.3%
4	De'Von Achane RB	3	4.0	12	15.8%
5	Greg Dulcich TE	4	4.2	17	14.9%
6	Chris Bell WR	5	3.0	15	11.4%
7	Jalen Tolbert WR	2	1.5	3	6.8%
8	DJ Herman RB	2	1.5	3	6.5%
9	Will Kacmarek TE	5	1.2	6	5.5%
10	Ollie Gordon II RB	4	1.2	5	5.1%

Game log · 15 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Pass Yds	vs 168.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	vs CIN	137	Under	190.5	66 (100%)
2026-10-04	4	@ MIN	85	Under	169.5	39 (100%)
2026-09-27	3	vs KC	210	Over	174.5	73 (100%)
2026-09-20	2	@ SF	197	Over	183.5	59 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	@ LV	220	Over	179.5	56 (100%)
2025-12-27	17	vs BAL	288	Over	340.5	39 (83%)
2025-12-20	16	@ CHI	121	Under	130.5	46 (64%)
2025-11-23	12	vs MIN	7	Under	—	6 (9%)
2025-11-16	11	@ NYG	6	Under	—	7 (13%)
2025-01-05	18	vs CHI	136	Under	—	43 (66%)
2024-12-23	16	vs NO	34	Under	—	9 (13%)
2024-10-27	8	@ JAX	56	Under	—	26 (37%)
2024-09-22	3	@ TEN	202	Over	—	63 (100%)
2024-09-15	2	vs IND	122	Under	—	70 (100%)
2024-09-06	1	@ PHI	0	Under	—	2 (3%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 168.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: PrizePicks, updated 12m ago.