NFL Prop Research: Game Logs vs Today's Line

Quentin Johnston WR

LAC vs KC · Sun Oct 18 · 4:25 PM ET

35.5 Rec Yds O -115U -114

Hit rate · All 59%20/34 Odds imply 50.1% Over

Season avg: 27.0
Graph avg: 46.3
Graph median: 41.00–186
Over the close: 39%7/18

2026 per game

Targets4.8▼-1.7

Rec1.8▼-2.1

Rec Yds27.0▼-26.9

Rec TD0.0▼-0.6

Snaps52.8▲+0.5

Snap %80.2%▲+1.6

35.5

2024

38

Sep 08
51

Sep 15
44

Sep 22
9

Sep 29
22

Oct 13
118

Nov 03
24

Nov 10
48

Nov 17
0

Nov 25
12

Dec 01
48

Dec 08
45

Dec 15
18

Dec 19
48

Dec 28
186

Jan 05
0

Jan 11
2025

79

Sep 05
71

Sep 15
89

Sep 21
98

Sep 28
40

Oct 05
30

Oct 19
53

Nov 02
42

Nov 09
0

Nov 16
23

Nov 30
8

Dec 08
104

Dec 21
98

Dec 27
20

Jan 11
2026

17

Sep 13
7

Sep 20
40

Sep 27
44

Oct 04
?

Oct 18

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 35.5

Home 47% 8/17 · avg 36.2
Away 71% 12/17 · avg 56.4
vs KC 67% 2/3 · avg 45.3

Alt lines all · how often Over cleared

O 25.5 62% 21/34
O 30.5 59% 20/34
O 35.5 Today 59% 20/34
O 40.5 50% 17/34
O 45.5 38% 13/34

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs KC

What KC allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds126.2#26
Receptions10.4#18
Targets18.5#13
Yds/Target6.8#30
Rec TD0.3#32

WRs vs KC · 2026

Each main WR who faced KC this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-7.5

Avg diff %-7%

Beat their average50% (4/8)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 04	Tre Tucker	44	57.5	-23%
Oct 04	Cody White	36	18.0	+100%
Sep 27	Malik Washington	56	51.5	+9%
Sep 27	Ryan Miller	15	38.5	-61%
Sep 20	Keenan Allen	5	46.7	-89%
Sep 20	Josh Downs	72	44.2	+63%
Sep 14	Jaylen Waddle	2	45.2	-96%
Sep 14	Pat Bryant	42	30.3	+38%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

LAC offense

LAC offense: Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	9%13.7 yds	1%17.0 yds	8%7.0 yds
Short	28%6.3 yds	15%6.2 yds	39%4.6 yds

Share of LAC pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

KC defense

KC defense: Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	10%9.3 yds#22	4%14.1 yds#20	5%8.0 yds#27
Short	30%5.6 yds#19	14%6.2 yds#24	37%5.3 yds#18

Throws KC faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	23%13.5 yds	0%	13%7.3 yds
Short	34%5.4 yds	11%6.4 yds	19%5.6 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of LAC targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Tre Harris WR	5	5.0	25	18.0%
2	Quentin Johnston WR	4	4.8	19	16.5%
3	David Njoku TE	2	4.0	8	15.0%
4	Ladd McConkey WR	4	4.2	17	14.8%
5	Brenen Thompson WR	1	3.0	3	11.5%
6	Oronde Gadsden II TE	5	3.2	16	11.0%
7	Keaton Mitchell RB	5	2.8	14	10.3%
8	Charlie Kolar TE	3	2.3	7	10.2%
9	Kimani Vidal RB	4	2.0	8	7.1%
10	Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR	3	1.7	5	6.8%

Game log · 34 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 35.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-04	4	@ SEA	44	Over	34.5	53 (75%)
2026-09-27	3	@ BUF	40	Over	35.5	60 (87%)
2026-09-20	2	vs LV	7	Under	46.5	55 (81%)
2026-09-13	1	vs ARI	17	Under	43.5	43 (78%)
2026-01-11	19 (P)	@ NE	20	Under	11.5	46 (77%)
2025-12-27	17	vs HOU	98	Over	105.5	47 (75%)
2025-12-21	16	@ DAL	104	Over	104.5	37 (58%)
2025-12-08	14	vs PHI	8	Under	8.5	56 (76%)
2025-11-30	13	vs LV	23	Under	13.5	45 (67%)
2025-11-16	11	@ JAX	0	Under	40.5	43 (90%)
2025-11-09	10	vs PIT	42	Over	44.5	60 (82%)
2025-11-02	9	@ TEN	53	Over	53.5	44 (68%)
2025-10-19	7	vs IND	30	Under	7.5	68 (89%)
2025-10-05	5	vs WAS	40	Over	40.5	55 (82%)
2025-09-28	4	@ NYG	98	Over	76.5	58 (92%)
2025-09-21	3	vs DEN	89	Over	89.5	75 (87%)
2025-09-15	2	@ LV	71	Over	75.5	44 (76%)
2025-09-05	1	vs KC	79	Over	26.5	53 (82%)
2025-01-11	19 (P)	@ HOU	0	Under	—	47 (84%)
2025-01-05	18	@ LV	186	Over	—	55 (73%)
2024-12-28	17	@ NE	48	Over	—	54 (68%)
2024-12-19	16	vs DEN	18	Under	—	44 (68%)
2024-12-15	15	vs TB	45	Over	—	38 (73%)
2024-12-08	14	@ KC	48	Over	—	48 (80%)
2024-12-01	13	@ ATL	12	Under	—	31 (67%)
2024-11-25	12	vs BAL	0	Under	—	45 (65%)
2024-11-17	11	vs CIN	48	Over	—	55 (82%)
2024-11-10	10	vs TEN	24	Under	—	49 (83%)
2024-11-03	9	@ CLE	118	Over	—	39 (68%)
2024-10-13	6	@ DEN	22	Under	—	32 (41%)
2024-09-29	4	vs KC	9	Under	—	43 (77%)
2024-09-22	3	@ PIT	44	Over	—	37 (80%)
2024-09-15	2	@ CAR	51	Over	—	48 (70%)
2024-09-08	1	vs LV	38	Over	—	38 (67%)

Pick’em lines: PrizePicks 34.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Caesars, updated 5m ago.