NFL Prop Research: Player Hit Rates & Game Logs

Justin Jefferson WR

MIN vs IND · Sun Oct 25 · 1:00 PM ET

69.5 Rec Yds

Hit rate · Last 20 50%10/20 Odds imply —

Season avg: 64.5
Graph avg: 63.1
Graph median: 67.54–126
Over the close: 21%4/19

2026 per game

Targets6.0▼-2.3

Rec4.8▼-0.2

Rec Yds64.5▲+2.9

Rec TD0.8▲+0.6

Snaps45.5▼-9.9

Snap %73.2%▼-20.9

69.5

2025

81

Sep 14
75

Sep 21
126

Sep 28
123

Oct 05
79

Oct 19
74

Oct 23
47

Nov 02
37

Nov 09
61

Nov 16
48

Nov 23
4

Nov 30
11

Dec 07
22

Dec 14
85

Dec 21
30

Dec 25
101

Jan 04
2026

92

Sep 13
55

Sep 20
32

Sep 27
79

Oct 11
?

Oct 25

Closing line = market consensus (SportsGameOdds), from the 2025 season on.

Splits all logged games · over 69.5

Home 78% 14/18 · avg 82.6
Away 43% 9/21 · avg 67.1
vs IND 100% 1/1 · avg 137.0

Alt lines last 20 · how often Over cleared

O 49.5 60% 12/20
O 59.5 55% 11/20
O 69.5 Today 50% 10/20
O 79.5 30% 6/20
O 89.5 20% 4/20

Past results counted against these lines. Research only, not a projection.

Matchup radar · WRs vs IND

What IND allowed to WRs per game over its last 10 games. Rank 1 = allowed the most of 32 defenses.

Rec Yds158.0#12
Receptions11.8#12
Targets18.5#15
Yds/Target8.5#13
Rec TD0.8#22

WRs vs IND · 2026

Each main WR who faced IND this season: rec yds in that game against their own average in their other games.

Avg vs their norm-9.8

Avg diff %-24%

Beat their average33% (4/12)

Date	Player	Result	Their avg	Diff
Oct 18	Carnell Tate	70	54.8	+28%
Oct 18	Wan'Dale Robinson	22	35.2	-38%
Oct 11	DK Metcalf	12	61.2	-80%
Oct 11	Roman Wilson	0	47.0	-100%
Oct 04	Stefon Diggs	35	45.0	-22%
Oct 04	Antonio Williams	21	33.5	-37%
Sep 27	Jaylin Noel	17	63.4	-73%
Sep 27	Xavier Hutchinson	51	38.0	+34%
Sep 20	Rashee Rice	83	53.5	+55%
Sep 20	Xavier Worthy	25	45.2	-45%
Sep 13	Zay Flowers	150	80.2	+87%
Sep 13	Rashod Bateman	0	46.6	-100%

Target zones

Share of charted pass attempts by depth (deep = more than 15 air yards) and direction, with yards per attempt. Shading follows the share.

MIN offense

MIN offense: Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	11%15.9 yds	2%11.2 yds	8%7.5 yds
Short	27%4.8 yds	17%7.4 yds	35%5.5 yds

Share of MIN pass attempts, last 10 games · Yds/att

IND defense

IND defense: Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	5%12.2 yds#11	3%13.7 yds#22	10%11.7 yds#12
Short	30%6.0 yds#12	20%9.2 yds#1	33%5.8 yds#12

Throws IND faced, last 10 games · rank 1 = most yds/att allowed · Yds/att allowed

His targets

His targets: Last 10 games
Depth	Left	Middle	Right
Deep	12%15.5 yds	3%11.0 yds	9%6.7 yds
Short	27%3.7 yds	18%10.2 yds	30%6.8 yds

Last 10 games · Yds/target

Each pass-catcher’s share of MIN targets this season (nflverse), with games and targets.

#	Player	GP	Tgt/g	Total	Share
1	Justin Jefferson WR	4	6.0	24	25.7%
2	Jordan Addison WR	4	5.5	22	22.3%
3	T.J. Hockenson TE	5	5.4	27	20.3%
4	Aaron Jones RB	5	3.6	18	12.6%
5	Gavin Bartholomew TE	2	3.5	7	11.9%
6	Josh Oliver TE	3	1.7	5	7.6%
7	Tai Felton WR	3	2.0	6	7.1%
8	Myles Price WR	5	1.4	7	5.0%
9	Jauan Jennings WR	4	1.2	5	4.7%
10	Ben Yurosek TE	1	1.0	1	3.4%

Game log · 20 games

Date	Wk	Opp	Rec Yds	vs 69.5	Close	Snaps
2026-10-11	5	@ NO	79	Over	79.5	63 (89%)
2026-09-27	3	@ TB	32	Under	75.5	7 (12%)
2026-09-20	2	@ CHI	55	Under	79.5	52 (100%)
2026-09-13	1	vs GB	92	Over	73.5	60 (92%)
2026-01-04	18	vs GB	101	Over	71.5	51 (76%)
2025-12-25	17	vs DET	30	Under	66.5	53 (98%)
2025-12-21	16	@ NYG	85	Over	85.5	58 (95%)
2025-12-14	15	@ DAL	22	Under	22.5	53 (96%)
2025-12-07	14	vs WAS	11	Under	15.5	51 (80%)
2025-11-30	13	@ SEA	4	Under	10.5	50 (96%)
2025-11-23	12	@ GB	48	Under	—	44 (100%)
2025-11-16	11	vs CHI	61	Under	62.5	55 (100%)
2025-11-09	10	vs BAL	37	Under	74.5	65 (100%)
2025-11-02	9	@ DET	47	Under	50.5	59 (95%)
2025-10-23	8	@ LAC	74	Over	95.5	43 (88%)
2025-10-19	7	vs PHI	79	Over	84.5	68 (99%)
2025-10-05	5	@ CLE	123	Over	115.5	65 (100%)
2025-09-28	4	@ PIT	126	Over	130.5	76 (100%)
2025-09-21	3	vs CIN	75	Over	75.5	48 (80%)
2025-09-14	2	vs ATL	81	Over	64.5	47 (100%)

Pick’em lines: Underdog 69.5PrizePicks 70.5

Hit rate counts past games above today’s line. Drag the line on the chart to count against any other number. It describes history and is not a prediction or a pick. Game logs: nflverse weekly player stats + nflverse schedules, nflverse snap counts. Target zones: nflverse play-by-play. Closing lines: SportsGameOdds consensus closing line. Lines: Underdog, updated 11m ago.